Strive overtakes MARA by 18 bitcoin after $515 million of purchases

Strive had help getting there. It held 29,462 BTC before the two purchases, so the 6,133 coins it added ^[5] are a 20.8% increase ^[13], but MARA's 35,577 BTC is a post-sale figure ^[3], and MARA's own selling is part of why the ranking moved.

Strategy holds about 848,250 BTC ^[8], and the 6,133 coins Strive bought in a little more than a week equal 0.72% of that ^[21]. On those numbers Strive is a small holder growing quickly, and Strategy's lead is intact.

Warrants cover only part of the funding. The $369.2 million they are expected to bring in ^[6] is 72% of the roughly $515 million Strive spent on the two tranches ^[17], and the 3,311 BTC were bought Oct. 5 to Oct. 9 ^[4], before the Oct. 12 and 13 exercise ^[6]. Neither report says how that first purchase was paid for. On the reported figures, holders paid about $27 a share, roughly 2% under Tuesday's $27.59 close ^[18]. At the roughly $82,000 bitcoin price Crypto Briefing cites ^[11], the 6,133 coins cost an average of about $84,000 each, 2.4% above it ^[15].

The next money is the preferred. If all 5 million SATS shares sell, the dividend is $75 million a year, about 915 BTC at $82,000 ^[19]. Bitcoin.com wrote that investors are weighing the larger holdings against potential dilution and mounting preferred-stock obligations ^[12].

The two reports also disagree on warrants. Bitcoin.com says none from the PIPE remained outstanding after Tuesday's close, with 94% of traditional warrants exercised overall ^[7]. Crypto Briefing says 13.7 million of 15.3 million remaining warrants were exercised ^[22], which would leave 1.6 million ^[23]. The two may be counting different pools.

We think the 18-coin lead is a snapshot, and that the next leg depends on whether the preferred sells, since 94% of the traditional warrants are already used ^[7]. We would be wrong if the offering prices and Strive closes the gap to Metaplanet within weeks. The case against us is the pace it just showed: 6,133 coins in a little more than a week ^[5]. MARA could also widen Strive's lead by selling again, with Strive buying nothing ^[3].