MSCI's Aug. 3 proposal to drop "non-operating companies" from its indexes would remove Strategy and Metaplanet, according to MSCI's own simulation. JPMorgan analysts put Strategy's potential outflows from benchmark-tracking funds at about $2.8 billion in 2025.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence62
Metaplanet's board pulled back grant terms that expanded with every equity raise, cutting the potential share pool by about 41 percent and lifting bitcoin per fully diluted share 8.8 percent without buying a coin.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives72
- Confidence50
A 17% two-day selloff got Metaplanet's board to take 131.27 million potential shares out of its contested option pool in four days, and to add a new CFO, a Hong Kong arm and a December capital vote.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives76
- Confidence46
The Bristol company wants £15m to £25m for MORE shares, a sterling perpetual preferred backed by 2,878 bitcoin, and the High Court cleared the dividend capacity in July, before any prospectus existed.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
The board froze an option pool that had grown nearly sevenfold to 319 million rights and cut the plan by 41%, a reduction worth about $123m that leaves management with a claim on roughly 13% of the diluted company.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
The company that vowed never to sell has taken $432.5 million out of its own reserve since May, and the dollars now sit in two accounts, one ring-fenced for dividends and interest, the other still free to buy bitcoin.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption64
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives74
- Confidence42
US debt crossed $40 trillion and the interest bill now tops Medicare. The buyback that helped move gold and bitcoin was $4 billion, or one hundredth of one percent of the stock.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives74
- Confidence45
Zhibao Technology took in $154.7 million entirely in coins, weeks after a Nasdaq bid-price notice and a going-concern warning. This is balance-sheet triage dressed as treasury strategy.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives74
- Confidence66
The Tokyo-listed treasury firm is committing about $134.6 million in coins and cash for 95.7% of Super League. Shareholders and regulators in two countries still have to sign off.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 67%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption26
- Hype gap+27
- Incentives68
- Confidence66
The 840,447-coin stack sat untouched for a week while common shareholders funded a $52.4M dividend and a $132.2M preferred buyback. Cash coverage now runs 2.8 years.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption46
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives66
- Confidence57
MSCI dropped its crypto-specific exclusion test, but the replacement simulation still deleted Strategy, Metaplanet and Yellow Cake from ACWI IMI. Feedback closes end-September, results mid-October.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives68
- Confidence45
The BitBonds launch brought in about $1.3 million at 4.0 to 4.3 percent. What it actually built was an in-house channel selling bitcoin-treasury credit to Japanese retail and corporate buyers.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 17%
- Operator
- Operator 33%
- Investor
- Investor 50%
Reality
- Evidence61
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+33
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
A revived MSCI consultation names Strategy and Metaplanet as deletions if its "non-operating companies" screen passes. Comments close September 30, with a decision due around October 16.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives58
- Confidence42