CME FedWatch odds of an October Fed hike fell to 14% from 70% after September payrolls rose 29,000 against 84,000 expected. Stocks and Bitcoin rallied on what futures and prediction markets price as a one-meeting delay in the Fed's hiking.
Perspective Coverage
12 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 4%
- Operator
- Operator 29%
- Investor
- Investor 67%
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives55
- Confidence76
Bitcoin sat at $85,276 on Sunday, below the $86,000 area it hit before payrolls, even as Glassnode put October Fed hike odds at 22% from 66%. This week's fund-flow data will show whether ETF buyers are taking over from the short covering that lifted it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence52
Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $84,376 after August core PCE came in at 3.0%, below the 3.3% economists expected. Lower odds of an October Fed hike did little for a market whose September rally ran on ETF inflows that have since faded.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 15%
- Investor
- Investor 80%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives40
- Confidence65
Bitfinex says bitcoin needs ETF buying back near $190 million a day to extend a September gain of more than 6.5%. About 1.39 million coins were bought between $84,000 and $86,500, and holders waiting to break even can sell into any climb.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence35
Bitcoin gained about 6% in September as the dollar index rose nearly 2% and the 10-year Treasury yield passed 5%. Most of that gain came from a burst of ETF buying, so allocators who treat bitcoin as a bet against the dollar are really underwriting that flow.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
August's roughly 25-30% gain inverted a decade of negative seasonality, and the mechanism was a record liquidation of bearish bets rather than a flood of new money, which changes what $79,000 is worth.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
Forced closures of bearish bets, counted at $648 million by Crypto Briefing and above $600 million by CoinGlass, carried bitcoin to its highest price since January. Glassnode puts the US spot ETF cohort's average entry at $85,638.
Perspective Coverage
8 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 6%
- Operator
- Operator 14%
- Investor
- Investor 80%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence60