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Strategy needs bitcoin at $85,750 on Dec. 31 to finish 2026 in profit after a $20.91 billion quarter
Strategy's $20.91 billion third-quarter bitcoin gain still leaves it about $1.87 billion down on digital assets for 2026, its SEC filings show. With the coin near $85,300, whether the year ends in profit depends on a Dec. 31 close roughly $450 higher.
The Investor · Invest desk
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What happened
- Losses of $14.46 billion in the first quarter and $8.32 billion in the second came as bitcoin slid to about $68,284 by March 31 and below Strategy's cost basis by June 30.
- Strategy posted a chart on X ranking the quarter's gain seventh against S&P 500 quarterly operating income, just ahead of Meta's $19 billion.
- By Sept. 30 its bitcoin was worth $70.82 billion against a cost basis of $63.95 billion, back in profit after a position held since spring.
- That let Strategy reverse a $4.12 billion deferred tax asset from June and release its allowance, cutting estimated deferred tax expense to $1.88 billion from about $6 billion.
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Why it matters
- contradiction Strategy's chart sets a fair-value mark on bitcoin it already owned beside GAAP operating income from selling products, so its seventh-place ranking compares a price change with other companies' sales.
- exposure A year-end close at today's price would book 2026 as a digital-asset loss of roughly $380 million, so the sign of Strategy's annual result rests on a move of about half a percent.
- cost More than a fifth of the quarter's $19.03 billion after-tax result came from the $4.12 billion tax release, a step Strategy took only because its coins were back above cost.
Strategy marks its 848,000 bitcoin at fair value, so every $1,000 on the price moves its reported result by about $848 million [4][16]. In the third quarter that sensitivity worked in the company's favor. Bitcoin rose about 42.6%, from near $58,625 at the end of June to near $83,624 at the end of September [5]. Netted against the first two quarters, Strategy's filings, as compiled by Bitcoin.com News, still put the year at minus $1.87 billion [15][7].
The year-end line comes from the same multiplication. Strategy's Sept. 30 carrying value works out to about $83,546 a coin. Spreading the $1.87 billion gap over 848,000 coins adds roughly $2,200, for a break-even near $85,750, by Bitcoin.com News's calculation [12]. Bitcoin trades around $85,300 [13].
That line sits about $1,900 below bitcoin's 2025 close of $87,648, even though the coin ended September 4.6% down on the year [8][19]. I think the difference is the coins Strategy bought after the first-quarter slide, whose gains count from their purchase prices. The reported figures do not break that out.
A close above roughly $85,750 turns 2026 positive. Between that line and the $75,440.70 average cost, the year is a loss but the stack stays above cost [4]. Below the average cost, about 12% under today's price, the holdings would sit under cost basis again [21]. That was Strategy's position in June, when it carried a fully reserved deferred tax asset [10]. Strategy says KPMG has not reviewed the third-quarter figures [11].
In my view the 2026 number records where one price lands on one day, and at $85,300 it lands a little short. The counter-case is the cumulative position. On Sept. 30 the stack was worth $6.87 billion more than Strategy paid for it, and a calendar-year loss does not change that [20]. The view is wrong if bitcoin closes Dec. 31 above about $85,750 [12].
The weekly buying barely changes the exposure. The latest 334 coins added about 0.04% to the stack [24].
What to watch
- KPMG's year-end audit, the first outside review of the deferred tax reversal and the $1.88 billion third-quarter charge.
- Whether bitcoin holds above $86,000, where Bitcoin.com News described the price grinding under resistance, through the Dec. 31 close.