Strategy and IBIT now hold 7.87% of bitcoin's capped supply on very different terms

Against the 21 million cap, the two holdings are close in size. Strategy is only about 5.3% larger by coin count ^[7]. They are different kinds of property. Strategy owns its 848,000 coins as a corporate treasury ^[8]. IBIT's coins are owned by a Delaware statutory trust whose shareholders hold fractional beneficial interests in its net assets, and BlackRock does not hold them as a treasury asset the way Strategy does ^[8].

For Strategy, the risk is the price against its cost. Its $75,440.70 average sits $9,738.30 below Monday's $85,179, a cushion of 11.4% ^[15]. The latest 334 coins are 0.04% of the holding ^[16], and each cost $659.80 more than Monday's price ^[18]. The buying is small at the margin. It has not been one-way either: Strategy made a few sales this year, according to the article ^[11].

IBIT's balance changes only through its dealers. A shareholder cannot hand stock to BlackRock and walk away with bitcoin ^[12]. Authorized participants such as Citigroup Global Markets, UBS Securities and Virtu Americas deal with the trust in 40,000-share baskets ^[12]. A smaller group handles actual bitcoin, and Jane Street Capital is among the firms IBIT names ^[13]. The article notes that in-kind outflows do not necessarily mean bitcoin sales ^[14]. The trust's count shows how its flows have netted out: 805,222.42 coins now against 805,466.7097 on Oct. 13, 2025, a difference of about 244 coins ^[17].

The overlap I would watch is custody. Strategy spreads its coins across Coinbase Custody, Anchorage Digital and Fidelity Digital Assets. On July 24, when it held 843,775, Coinbase had 350,471, Anchorage 325,689 and Fidelity 167,615 ^[10]. IBIT's primary custodian is Coinbase Custody Trust Company, and BlackRock has said it had no current plans to move the trust's coins to Anchorage ^[9]. Add Strategy's July Coinbase share to IBIT's 805,222.42 and about 1.16 million coins, roughly 70% of the combined 1,653,222.42, sit with one firm ^[19]. The figure is approximate. Strategy can move coins between custodians, and the snapshot is from before it reached 848,000 ^[11][2].

This could go a few ways. Bitcoin could fall through $75,440.70 and leave Strategy below cost, as it was earlier this year ^[4]. Redemptions could cut IBIT's count, with the coins passing to dealers that may or may not sell them ^[14]. Or prices hold, and the biggest exposure the two share stays at one custodian ^[19].

I think the 7.87% figure ^[1] overstates the market risk in IBIT's half and understates the overlap at Coinbase. The article does not measure trading volume or price impact, so any liquidity argument here rests on structure alone. The view is wrong if a selloff brings large IBIT outflows that dealers sell into the market, or if Strategy sells in size near its cost.