BlackRock's IBIT draws $450 million in a week when all US bitcoin ETFs net $241 million

Take IBIT out and every other US spot bitcoin ETF together lost $209.10 million in the week ^[19]. BlackRock's fund took in about 1.87 times the category's net ^[27]. FBTC, GBTC and BITB shed $261.17 million between them ^[20], so the remaining funds took in about $52 million net ^[21].

The 90% figure depends on which week you measure against. Last week's intake was roughly a tenth of the $2.39 billion from the five sessions before ^[2]. Against the streak's opening week ^[8], it was about 39 times larger ^[23]. About 91% of the three weeks' money came in the middle week ^[24].

September brought in more than the year has. SoSoValue puts year-to-date net inflows at about $1.2 billion and the cumulative total at $57.8 billion, according to Cointelegraph ^[14][7]. Bitcoin.com counts $2.65 billion for September alone ^[12], about $1.45 billion more than the year's running total ^[18]. The two publishers' weekly figures agree, at $241.08 million and $241.1 million ^[1][7]. For January through August to have been positive, the first days of October would have had to lose more than $1.45 billion. The week had one outflow day, and it was about a tenth that size ^[9]. The eight months before September were therefore net outflows ^[18].

The week supports more than one reading. In one, the middle week of the streak was a spike, a few hundred million a week is the normal pace, and IBIT is taking share from older funds. In another, weakness elsewhere reaches bitcoin funds next: the ether reversal ^[4] came in the same week Zcash funds had their first weekly outflow on record, about $94 million ^[5]. In a third, price and flows separate. Bitcoin rose over a week of slower ETF buying ^[15], and according to Bitcoin.com, September payrolls of 29,000, below expectations, eased fears of more Federal Reserve tightening ^[17].

I think the evidence supports cooling plus concentration, with no reversal yet. The streak held, and Friday was the week's largest inflow day ^[9]. The counter-thesis is that the category outside IBIT is already reversing, with a few large IBIT buyers propping up the total ^[19]. The weekly data does not show whether IBIT's money came from new buyers or from holders switching out of FBTC and GBTC ^[10][11]. The view is wrong if IBIT itself posts an outflow week ^[10], or if bitcoin funds follow ether into outflows in October ^[4].

New money outside bitcoin and ether went mostly to the newest product. Bitwise's NEAR fund took $58.35 million in its first week ^[13], more than five times the $10.48 million that went into Solana, XRP and HYPE ETFs combined ^[26]. That more than covered Bitwise's BITB outflow, leaving the issuer $19.70 million ahead across the two funds ^[25]. ETF Store president Nate Geraci called the SEC's approval of listings for the first 3x leveraged bitcoin and ether ETFs a "wild turn of events" ^[16].