Strategy and BlackRock's IBIT trust hold 1.65 million bitcoin worth about $140.8 billion, 7.87% of the 21 million cap. Strategy owns its coins as a corporate treasury, while IBIT's belong to a trust whose balance moves with share redemptions.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
BlackRock's IBIT took in $450 million last week while all US spot bitcoin ETFs together netted $241 million, about 90% less than the week before. That keeps a three-week inflow streak alive on one fund's buyers heading into October.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence66
Bitcoin sat at $85,276 on Sunday, below the $86,000 area it hit before payrolls, even as Glassnode put October Fed hike odds at 22% from 66%. This week's fund-flow data will show whether ETF buyers are taking over from the short covering that lifted it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence52
Bitcoin's CMBI benchmark closed near $83,113, just under the $84,000-$85,000 band where Glassnode counts more long-term holder coins than at any other price. With futures leverage at its lowest since March, spot buyers and sellers will decide whether the band holds.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives35
- Confidence50
Fidelity and BlackRock supplied about 97% of the $433 million that US spot bitcoin ETFs took in on September 18, and the week they rescued still finished at plus $6.2 million, worth about 77 bitcoin.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption76
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives48
- Confidence70
Cloture on H.R. 3633 failed 49-50 on Sept. 15 with every yes vote Republican. Add the four Republican noes back to the yes column and the count reaches 53, still seven short of the 60 the Senate requires.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
ETHA's $149m on September 11 was nearly 69% of the day's $216m sector inflow, but its share of August's $1.75bn was closer to 57%, and the $13bn cumulative figure is being measured against a sector asset total.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption61
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives56
- Confidence44
Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled $606 million on August 20, and IBIT kept $503 million of it. The month's record total is mostly one issuer, and the first fund liquidation shows why.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence45