Renaissance Capital blames issuers' own pricing for the IPO stall since SpaceX's float

Bankers and analysts quoted by City AM give two reasons for the slowdown: lukewarm investor demand and fears over soaring AI valuations ^[3]. Only the first applies to most of the companies that pulled back. Oura makes smart rings, EG Group runs petrol stations and Holtec is a nuclear energy firm. SB Energy, a data centre company, is the only one of the four inside the AI build-out ^[2]. Firms with no tie to the AI boom were among those blaming market volatility for holding off ^[8], and Holtec cited unfavourable conditions when it withdrew its filing last month ^[10].

Renaissance Capital doubts that excuse. Its analysts wrote that "postponed IPOs may cite adverse market conditions, when the reality looks closer to normalised market conditions" ^[7]. A skeptic would say the turbulence is real, and City AM points to months of volatile oil prices driven by the war in the Middle East, along with rising bond yields ^[11]. Both can be true. Volatility raises the return investors want from a new issue, and the issuer pays for that in the price. If Renaissance is right, a company waiting for conditions to improve is waiting for the strong second quarter it set its price expectations against to come back ^[4].

Buyers also have fresh losses after listings to weigh. City AM describes a "pop and drop" pattern, where investors sell aggressively in the days after a heavily oversubscribed float ^[17]. SpaceX rose roughly 19 per cent on its first day of trading and has slid for months since, to around $158.9 ^[5]. In Shanghai, Unitree Robotics surged 460 per cent above its IPO price in its first session and has since fallen 46.7 per cent ^[6].

For the issuer, the cost of a lower price is dilution. Oura's planned raise was about 14 per cent of its listing value ^[18]. At a lower valuation, raising the same sum means selling a larger stake. City AM did not report a revised target for any of the four companies, so how far prices have to fall is not yet known.

Waiting costs something too. In London, seven companies have listed this year, raising £577m in the first half, according to EY ^[12]. "While a limited number of listings are expected before the end of 2026, much of the visible pipeline is focused on early 2027," said Kat Kravtsov, capital markets director at PwC UK ^[13]. A company that defers this quarter joins that queue next year. OpenAI has already pushed its own listing back to 2027 ^[21].

So the trade-off for a founder or CFO this quarter is dilution now against time and an unknown price later. The decision is about this quarter's price. Nothing in the record says listing has closed as an exit route, and some issuers are still going ahead. Airtel Money confirmed a £5.3bn London debut for October 14 ^[14].