Poland races Baltic storms and crowded quays to open its Gdańsk gas terminal by 2028

The terminal two miles off Gdańsk ^[3] takes Poland's regasification capacity from 8.3bn cubic metres a year to 14.4bn once its first vessel is running ^[5][4][18]. That is a rise of about 74% in one step ^[19]. To pass 20bn in 2030, the planned second vessel has to add at least 5.6bn more ^[6][20]. The project is built to more than Poland's own demand, with the aim of making the country a gas hub for eastern Europe and the Baltic states ^[1].

For anyone setting an energy budget this quarter, the date matters more than the volume. Gas prices are high now because of the Middle East war ^[21], and the first Gdańsk capacity is due in early 2028 ^[4]. Until then, Poland and the neighbours it hopes to supply depend on the routes that carried it through the loss of Russian gas: the Norwegian pipeline under the Baltic and the LNG terminal at Świnoujście ^[12].

The build is slow and the weather can stop it. Polish navy minesweepers had to destroy unexploded second world war mines and bombs before work could start, storms halt construction, and the sea froze over last winter ^[7]. Maciej Wawrzkowicz, offshore project manager at the national gas company Gaz-System, and Krzysztof Polatynski, the construction manager, said the Baltic is not an easy place to build ^[9]. Space on land is short as well. "Every quay that's available right now in the area that has some prefabrication workshop space, a contractor is occupying them. And you are seeking for more. Gdańsk harbour is a significant construction place right now," the project team told the Guardian ^[8].

A delay at Gdańsk would keep the region on its two existing routes for longer ^[12]. The Guardian describes a project of international significance in which speed is important ^[10]. Past that point, the link to prices is harder to establish. The report does not say whether the work is on schedule, whether any neighbour has booked capacity, or how a later start would move prices.

A skeptic would say Poland is buying into global LNG at its most expensive, with prices at what the Guardian calls stratospheric levels ^[21]. The trade-off is a price that moves with distant wars, set against a single supplier whose gas has already stopped ^[17]. Poland imported more than half its gas from Russia until 2022, when it refused to pay in rubles ^[11]. Paweł Sęk, deputy to the director of the energy transition division, called that year a "gamechanger" ^[16]. "After the war started, we knew what was going on and we knew many countries in our region would end up with no gas flows coming from Russia," he said ^[13].

The hub plan is where this quarter's choices shape later ones. Agnieszka Ozga, the division's director, said the terminal matters "Not only for Poland. But also Slovakia; central and eastern Europe countries; the Baltic states. It is also very, very important for the European Commission: to end the isolation of the Baltic states, because they were fully dependent on inflows of gas from Russia." ^[2] In my view, neighbours that plan around Gdańsk supply over the next year are also deciding whether the 2030 vessel has the demand to justify it ^[6].

Gas is one part of Poland's exposure. Coal produces more than half of its electricity, well above the EU average ^[14], and a Soviet-era coal-fired plant still sends smoke over the edge of Gdańsk's old town ^[15].