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Planet Fitness has fallen nearly three times as far as Life Time since Meta's Muse launched

Planet Fitness is down 20% since Meta's Muse agent launched Sept. 8, against 7% for upscale gym Life Time. The gap suggests investors already sort easy cancellations from sticky memberships, though Jim Cramer calls the 'consumer inertia' sell-off too broad.

The Investor · Invest desk

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Photograph accompanying Planet Fitness has fallen nearly three times as far as Life Time since Meta's Muse launched
Photo: tradersunion.com

What happened

  • The 'consumer inertia' trade bets that agents like Muse will cancel subscriptions and compare prices for users, hurting companies that profit when customers don't bother.
  • Since the Sept. 8 launch, Booking Holdings is down 16%, Airbnb 13%, SiriusXM about 11% and Charles Schwab 9%.
  • CNBC's Jim Cramer said Wall Street might be overreacting, as it did in this year's 'SaaSpocalypse' sell-off of enterprise software stocks.

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Why it matters

  • contradiction Cramer's own reason for the gym spread, engaged members against cheaper and less engaged ones, implies the market is already discriminating within the sector he says is being sold with a broad brush.
  • decision Buying Airbnb as a steal is a bet that agents compare rentals inside the platform instead of sending guests straight to owners, the side Expedia took by partnering with Muse.
  • exposure SiriusXM holders carry a years-long decline plus the new agent risk, yet the stock has been marked down less than Airbnb, the name Cramer considers safest.

The gym pair is the cleanest test of the theory. Planet Fitness has fallen 20% since Muse launched on Sept. 8 [4] and Life Time 7% [6]. That is a gap of 13 percentage points [1] and a ratio of roughly 2.9 to one [2]. Cramer's explanation is that Life Time's upscale, highly engaged members are less likely to cancel, while members at lower-cost Planet Fitness may be less engaged [7]. If he is right, sellers have already priced the difference between a membership people use and one they would drop once an agent can cancel it with their approval [3].

"I'm skeptical about dumping entire groups based on this idea that agentic AI means the death of consumer inertia and companies that benefit from it," Cramer said [10]. "Just don't try to paint with a broad brush," he said [12]. In gyms, at least, the selling is already narrower than that. Life Time was sold too, but by about a third as much [2].

The trade could settle in as the new normal, in which case Planet Fitness's discount is a fair price for a membership base an agent can thin out. It could fade the way the software sell-off did, when investors dumped enterprise names on fears about per-seat pricing [8] and Salesforce later came roaring back [9]. Or the sorting could be right in gyms and wrong elsewhere. CNBC's own account says there is no way to tell with certainty which it will be [18]. I lean to the third. The case against me is that three weeks of prices sort nothing, and a 13-point gap [1] could close the first time Planet Fitness shows its members staying put.

Elsewhere mostly means travel. The one bypass case in CNBC's account is aimed at Airbnb: Muse could, in theory, help travelers book directly with property owners, though Cramer said the platform's value is letting users compare rentals in one place [14]. Booking has still fallen 16% to Airbnb's 13% [5], 3 points further [3]. Online travel agencies still offer rewards programs, and Expedia has announced a partnership with Muse [13]. "Airbnb's sold off dramatically in the last month, to the point where I think the stock's a steal," Cramer said [15].

The oddest number belongs to SiriusXM. Cramer said he did not think Muse would destroy entire industries but that plenty of companies could be vulnerable, and he named SiriusXM, which he said has been in secular decline for years, before agentic AI existed [17]. Its shares have dropped about 11% [5], roughly 2 points less than Airbnb, the stock he calls a steal [4]. Charles Schwab slipped 9% [5] on the idea that agents will shuttle cash between institutions for slightly better yields. Cramer argued many customers stay with their banks because they trust them [16].

Share prices do not measure cancellations. The evidence that would settle the gym spread is membership data. If Life Time's engaged members begin leaving, a 7% fall was too little. If Planet Fitness keeps its base while an agent sits one approval away from cancelling it [3], the 20% fall [4] was priced on the theory alone.

What to watch

  • Membership and cancellation figures from Planet Fitness and Life Time, the first evidence of whether agent-prompted cancellations are real.
  • Whether other travel companies follow Expedia into a Muse partnership, and whether Booking keeps trading below Airbnb.
  • Whether the 13-point gap between Planet Fitness and Life Time widens or closes as the trade ages.
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