Simon Fraser glaciologists put Whistler Glacier's last ice less than a decade away

The denominators are small. The study, published in Annals of Glaciology, mapped the glaciers from aerial and satellite imagery spanning 1973 to 2024 ^{[1] [6]}. Together they covered about 1.42 square kilometres at the start of that record ^[17] and 0.44 at the end ^[18]. The combined loss is about 69% ^[19]. Whistler Glacier went from 0.224 to 0.012 square kilometres, less than the size of two soccer fields, according to the release ^[5]. "They are shrinking almost in real time when glacier change should be nearly imperceptible on human timescales," said Chloé Monty, the SFU master's student in glaciology who led the research ^{[23] [16]}.

The headline percentages survive a check against those areas, with one generous rounding. Whistler's loss works out to 94.6% and Horstman's to 74.1%. Blackcomb's listed areas give 57.7%, which the release rounds to "around 60%" ^{[20] [3]}.

Whether Whistler Glacier still exists depends partly on definition ^[2]. Area is one of several factors glaciologists weigh, and two cut-offs are in common use: 0.05 and 0.01 square kilometres ^[7]. At 0.012, Whistler sits about 2,000 square metres above the lower line ^[21]. Ice that falls below these thresholds could be reclassified as an "ice patch," though the terminology is still debated ^[9]. "Technically, Whistler Glacier is a relict glacier. Has it disappeared? That depends on your definition," Monty said. "The question is really when will it get to zero ice." ^[10]

The projections come from a degree-day model run under three future climate scenarios ^[11]. In the release's plain summary, the warmer it is, the more the ice melts ^[11]. The release does not say which scenario produces which end of each range. The windows widen as the glaciers get bigger. Horstman's spans 20 years and Blackcomb's 50, while Whistler, the smallest, gets only a ceiling ^[22].

The researchers point the dates at the resort. "The main message from our findings is the need for adaptation, rather than mitigation," Monty said ^[14]. The resort has lost glacier skiing once before: summer camps on Whistler Glacier started in 1966 and ended in the late 1990s as the glacier retreated ^[12].

"What we are seeing with these three glaciers is the inevitability of what was set in motion a couple of decades ago. Deciding when the glaciers no longer exist becomes a technicality," said Gwenn Flowers, the professor of Earth sciences who oversaw the research ^{[24] [16]}.