Top Latter-day Saints leader calls prediction markets gambling, siding with Utah against Trump

Christofferson's sharpest line was about settlement. Prediction markets take wagers on events such as whether it will rain in Los Angeles or whether the United States will go to war ^[8]. "Or even, if you can imagine, the timing of the Second Coming," he said. "Where do you go to collect on that bet?" ^[9]

The rest of his case was moral. "For us as Latter-day Saints, overarching all other concerns is the fact that gambling is morally wrong. Gambling is built on the desire to obtain something for nothing," he said ^[3]. He aimed it at teenagers and young adults, saying betting on smartphones is taking time from their studies and relationships ^[2].

The report does not include Kalshi's or Polymarket's volumes or user counts in Utah, so the money at stake there cannot be sized from it. The legal side can be read. With a federal ruling and a new statute already favouring the state ^[5][6], a sermon changes little about whether the platforms can operate in Utah.

The speech changes who in Utah will argue the platforms' case, and that can go three ways. It may be moral cover for a result the state already has, and change nothing. The administration's position that these products are not gambling ^[4] may eventually win over state law, leaving the church's opinion relevant to Utah voters and irrelevant to the platforms' Utah business. Or the speech is the visible part of a campaign, the version I think most likely. Matthew Bowman, a professor of religion and history at Claremont Graduate University ^[15], said the church's approach to politics has become more calculated, pairing public statements with behind-the-scenes lobbying ^[12]. Oaks, a former Utah Supreme Court justice, has taken the church into more political questions since becoming its top leader ^[11]. The strongest case against my view is that Utah does not need a campaign, because its court and legislature have already delivered what one would ask for.

What the church is not doing is asking members to act. In 2008, over California's Proposition 8, leaders encouraged members to get directly involved, and Bowman said the more calculated approach followed the public blowback to that stance ^[13].

The view is wrong if Utah officials ease enforcement or side with the administration after the speech, or if church leaders say nothing more on prediction markets before the next twice-yearly general conference ^[1]. Other denominations hold the same line: the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest Protestant denomination in America, declared sports gambling inconsistent with biblical principle in 2025 ^[14]. "The rise of predictive markets, and the legalization of sports gambling, this is just really taking off all across the country," Bowman said ^[10].