Topic
State gambling law, licensing requirements, and enforcement against unlicensed wagering operators.
D. Todd Christofferson, one of the Latter-day Saints' three top leaders, called prediction markets gambling that yields "nothing of value." The speech sets the Utah-based church against the Trump administration's view that Kalshi and Polymarket are not gambling.
Reality
Economist Victor Matheson puts 2025 US sports betting on prediction markets at $50 billion to $100 billion, handle that state regulators cannot see. Kalshi's pending federal appeals will shape whether that money stays outside state gambling law.
Reality
Polymarket has added deposit caps users cannot reverse, plus self-exclusion, after sports and parlays took over 98% of its September trading volume. Kalshi, which the CFTC regulates, already offered the same tools, so they help Polymarket defend itself in New York's gambling suit as much as they make it look like a sportsbook.
Reality
An account freezing order under the Proceeds of Crime Act attaches to the money wherever it sits, which is why a crypto sponsor's opening instalment of £10,024,041.33 has been immobilised since January.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
Polymarket has approached the European Commission, ESMA and the FCA's chief executive to be regulated under MiFID, the Financial Times reports. Spain blocked it in May and France followed in July.
Reality
Polymarket wants ESMA and the FCA to supervise its event contracts as financial instruments instead of gambling products. The MiFID label it is asking for comes with the EU's retail binary-options restrictions attached.
Reality
A King County judge sorted Kalshi's markets into two piles: sports and politics must be geofenced by September 2, while commodities, climate, economics and finance stay live.
Reality