Korean trips to Japan clear 10 million this year unless the last four months fall by more than 22.5%

Working back from the 21.2% rise, the same eight months of 2025 brought about 6.12 million Korean visitors ^[14]. Subtract that from last year's record 9.45 million ^[4] and September to December 2025 accounted for roughly 3.33 million ^[15]. This year needs 2.58 million in those four months to reach 10 million ^[16]. That is about 645,000 a month, and August alone beat it by about 205,000 ^[17]. To miss, autumn arrivals would have to fall about 22.5% from last year's level ^[18].

Beyond the threshold, the growth rate allows three readings. The first is the yen. The Bank of Korea put the rate at 846.35 won per 100 yen on October 8, against 922.23 at the end of last year ^[9], so the same yen now costs about 8.2% fewer won ^[19]. Growth in Korean arrivals slowed to 7.3% in 2025 ^[20], then picked up to 21.2% in the year the yen got cheaper ^[1]. On this reading, a stronger yen pulls the rate back toward last year's.

The second is habit. A Hana Tour official said Japan was the destination the company's customers returned to most often last year ^[6]. "It is the result of repeat travel becoming commonplace, with people looking for new experiences in destinations that have already proved themselves," the official said ^[7]. One company employee in her 30s, on her third trip to Takamatsu, gave direct flights, the quiet and cheap food as her reasons ^[11]. "Big cities are crowded and full of Korean tourists, but smaller cities have the appeal of a more relaxed trip," she said ^[12]. A university student in his 20s said he goes looking for areas with no direct flights from Korea ^[13]. The JNTO figures in the report are national totals. The move into smaller cities rests on the agency's statements, one tour operator and two travellers.

The third reading is relative. Koreans made up 27% of Japan's foreign visitors in January to August, 5 points more than a year earlier ^[10]. Taken at face value, those shares imply about 27.5 million foreign arrivals this year ^[21] against about 27.8 million a year before ^[22]. Koreans added about 1.3 million trips ^[23]. Visitors from everywhere else fell by about 1.6 million, or roughly 8% ^[24]. The shares are rounded, so the split is approximate.

We think the repeat habit explains the base and the cheaper yen explains most of the jump above it. The repeat share was already high among 2024's visitors ^[5], before this year's currency move, while the step from 7.3% growth to 21.2% arrived with that move ^[20]. If we are right, a won-yen rate back near its end-2025 level would leave growth closer to the 2025 pace than the 2026 one. We are wrong if the yen strengthens and Korean arrivals keep growing above 20%. In that case the habit is carrying more of the growth than we credit.