Science2 publishers3 min readPublished
Novo unveils twelve more GLP-1 and amylin launches through 2030 as 2032 patent cliff looms
The 2035 diversification target Novo gave investors in London is a single risk-adjusted total that includes assets already in the pipeline, and the launch list it published for 2027 through 2030 is almost all GLP-1 and amylin.
The Scientist · Science desk
What happened
- At its capital markets day in London, CEO Mike Doustdar said Novo would launch at least five multi-blockbusters by 2030 and grow revenue on par with other major pharma companies.
- Those launches are meant to come from more than five Phase III programs in obesity and diabetes, plus another five or more Phase III programs in other therapeutic areas.
- Novo's primary shares fell from DKK 281.55 to DKK 260.00 in Copenhagen that morning, with the New York depositary receipts down from $43.24 to $39.81.
- In a research note, BMO Capital Markets' Evan Seigerman called the 2026-2030 revenue growth target in line with industry peers and likely underwhelming for investors.
Compiled by The ScientistSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- constraint Every product Novo dated for 2027 through 2030 except two is a GLP-1 or amylin agent, so the non-metabolic programs cannot reach patients in time to cushion the 2032 semaglutide cliff.
- decision Doustdar said Novo "will be more active within business development." Business development is the only lever he named, so the diversification rests on deals not yet signed, and Novo has just told counterparties it expects peer-level growth.
- exposure Holders who bought Novo for a GLP-1 franchise are now being asked to underwrite a probability-weighted 2035 sales total instead, with the 2032 exclusivity answer still outstanding.
- contradiction Union Investment's Manns faulted Novo for saying little about the patent expiry yet called its case for next-generation obesity drugs credible, so investors were selling the missing cliff plan, not the drug class.
Novo's published launch calendar names fourteen products for 2027 through 2030. Once-weekly CagriSema, the amylin receptor agonist cagrilintide paired with semaglutide, is first, next year [20]. Cagrilintide on its own and a high-dose CagriSema follow in 2028 [21]. The 2029 slate is high-dose cagrilintide, zenagamtide (a peptide agonist at the GLP-1, amylin and calcitonin receptors), an oral zenagamtide and a next-generation GLP-1 [22]. For 2030 the company listed a monthly GLP-1, a thermostable GLP-1, an oral high-yield GLP-1, the long-acting amylin analogue Amylin 355 and an oral version of it, the oral ACSL5 inhibitor LX9851 co-developed with Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, and the triple agonist UBT251 [23]. Twelve of the fourteen are GLP-1 agents, amylin agents, or both; LX9851 and UBT251 are the two that are not [24].
The programs Novo counted outside diabetes and obesity all sit behind that calendar [2]. Novo put a number on the pipeline as a whole: more than DKK 150bn of risk-adjusted sales by 2035, a figure that includes assets already in the pipeline [3]. That total is probability-weighted and a decade out, so it does not measure how much of Novo's future lies outside metabolic disease. The only quantity attached to that part of the plan is a count of Phase III programs, five or more [2].
The slide began while Doustdar was still speaking. STAT reported the shares down 5% during his opening remarks [8]. Per Hansen, investment economist at Nordnet, wrote in a research note reported by Bloomberg News that "Investors are selling the shares because they are not seeing concrete news that could drive the stock higher" [15]. On CNBC, Hansen said: "Investors hoped for a project 'miracle' that could turn the momentum around short term. For obvious reasons that miracle does not exist." [16]
Seigerman's note cited consensus estimates of 3.53% compound annual growth for Novo against about 3.65% for its pharma peers [10], a gap of 0.12 percentage points [25]. He wrote that the growth expectation Novo outlined already appeared priced in to Wall Street estimates, and that it read negatively for the shares [11].
Doustdar called the 2032 loss of US exclusivity for semaglutide, sold as Ozempic for type 2 diabetes and as Wegovy for obesity and weight control, "the elephant in the room" [12]. He said Novo planned to come out the other side of the LOE as a bigger company than it is today, and a much more diversified one [13]. Markus Manns, a portfolio manager at Union Investment, told Reuters: "They (also) did not say much in terms of how to tackle the semaglutide patent expiration in 2032" [18]. Manns also said he was less than impressed by Novo's 2030 sales projections and a "broadly stable" operating margin [17].
What to watch
- Whether Novo's promised business-development activity puts a non-metabolic asset into late-stage development before 2032.
- Any split of the DKK 150bn risk-adjusted 2035 figure by therapy area at a later results presentation.
- Whether the 2027 CagriSema launch and the 2029 oral zenagamtide date hold, since ten of the fourteen listed products arrive in 2029 and 2030.