Hormuz is leaking, not closed: 7-9M barrels a day still move against a 20M baseline

Tehran describes the Strait of Hormuz as closed and Washington describes it as substantially working, and the numbers say neither is right. According to Fortune, the Trump administration claims 8 million to 9 million barrels a day are still getting out through clandestine ship-to-ship transfers, while analysts put the figure closer to 7 million, against a prewar level of 20 million ^[1][2][3].

That arithmetic is the trade. At the analysts' number, throughput is running near 35% of prewar volume; at the administration's upper bound, near 45% ^[1]. Either way, 11 million to 13 million barrels a day of the old baseline is not transiting the strait ^[2]. Fortune reports that strait flows plus pipeline exports together come to about half the prewar total, roughly 10 million barrels a day, which it frames as buying energy markets time rather than solving anything ^[6][4]. A market short several million barrels but not amputated prices as choppy and broadly in check, which is what has happened while missiles keep flying without full war resuming ^[8].

The mechanism is worth naming precisely, because it is not a policy. Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE are moving crude in and out using a dark fleet and ship-to-ship transfers ^[5]. The United States cannot fully reopen the waterway, and Iran cannot stop every ship ^[7]. Meanwhile the blockade Trump reimposed is doing what a blockade does to one party only: cutting off Iran's crude exports, its import of critical goods, and the regime's oil revenue ^[19][9].

Note also the spread between the two throughput estimates. One million to 2 million barrels a day is 14% to 29% of the analyst figure ^[3]; that is not rounding error, and it means the headline number depends on who is counting.

The fragility sits on both sides of the ledger. On supply, Fortune reports satellite images showing Saudi ships positioned on both sides of the strait for shuttle service, with Persian Gulf volumes poised to jump despite occasional Iranian attacks on tankers ^[10]. On the Iranian side, officials and business figures in Tehran warn the blockade will crush an economy that was already in poor shape before the war ^[11]. Majidreza Hariri, head of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, said the blockade will eventually inflict more damage than actual war and urged the regime to end it "whether through negotiation, supplication, threats, or even war" ^[13].

On the American side, the constraints are physical. Fortune reports that US forces are dealing with munitions and readiness problems ^[18], that the interceptor stockpile is low enough to have reportedly factored into Trump calling off a major re-escalation ^[15], and that the USS Abraham Lincoln is coping with mental health and supply strain during a record-long deployment, with a replacement carrier en route ^[16]. Iran, for its part, has reorganised for more aggression and fielded missiles better at evading air defences ^[14]. Eric Brewer, a former US intelligence official, told the Wall Street Journal that Iran has a higher pain tolerance than the United States and will hit back ^[17].

Watch three quantities: whether Saudi shuttle volumes actually arrive and push flows toward the upper end ^[10], whether the official and analyst throughput estimates converge or diverge further ^[1][2], and whether interceptor stocks and the carrier handover hold ^[15][16]. Fortune's own conclusion is that this equilibrium is unlikely to last ^[8].