USS Abraham Lincoln returned to San Diego on Thursday after a record 321-day deployment supporting the US war with Iran. The Navy's published figures measure what its air wing flew and burned, while the strain on the crew came to light through Congress and the press.
Perspective Coverage
7 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 79%
- Investor
- Investor 14%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence66
Trump is sending about 9,000 troops and a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East while calling more bombing of Iran after Nov. 3 "possible." For oil and rates, the case for a longer war rests on his refusal of an Iranian truce that offered to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 53%
- Investor
- Investor 42%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence65
The USS George Washington is heading to the Middle East to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, leaving the western Pacific without a US carrier. The tradable Iran risk fell anyway.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 58%
- Investor
- Investor 35%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives35
- Confidence58
Centcom's chief flew to a carrier with reported food, water and mental-health problems. The endurance limit, not the diplomacy, is what energy and shipping risk should be priced against.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 47%
- Investor
- Investor 48%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao told Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in writing that eight Lincoln strike group sailors attempted suicide on deployment. For leaders running a long surge, it shows how far a readiness summary can sit from what the work costs the people doing it.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives58
- Confidence60
Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao's "Epic Vigilance" notice asks sailors, reservists, civilians and their families to strip any public trace of Navy affiliation. It cites no specific incident.
Publishers:military.com
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives58
- Confidence38
Tehran calls the strait shut. The Trump administration puts clandestine flows at 8-9 million barrels a day and analysts at 7, which is why oil is choppy rather than vertical.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives74
- Confidence36
A carrier nine months at sea, resupplied through a channel the blockade itself has degraded, is the clearest public evidence that the Gulf standoff has a physical ceiling and not only a political one.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives72
- Confidence38
Treasury promises restrictions "never seen" and the Pentagon says the blockade can run indefinitely, while a record carrier deployment and 45 lost Reapers show what holding the line costs.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives78
- Confidence52