HD Hyundai and Siemens seat 50 specialists together in Busan under a 30% build-time target

Fifty people and a July contract are the only inputs the sources let us count ^[2][7]. The case that HD Hyundai is making a large bet on digital yards therefore rests on intent, and the target is the better handle on it.

The Future of Shipyard project, which aims at an autonomously operated yard by 2030, sets two goals: cut shipbuilding time by 30% and raise productivity by 30% ^[8]. Take the time figure at face value and measure it in dock days. A berth that delivers one ship in a given span would then deliver at most 1 / (1 - 0.30) = 1.43 in the same span, or about 43% more output from the same berth ^[11]. If the two 30% figures count one gain twice, or the time cut falls on design hours and leaves dock days alone, the berth gains less.

We think the time figure is the one to hold the project to, because it can be read off a delivery schedule. Kim Hyung-kwan, chief executive of HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, spoke at the opening. "The next-generation marine platform will play a key role in raising shipyards' productivity and competitiveness by verifying the entire ship design and production process in advance in a digital environment," Kim said, according to en.sedaily.com ^[9]. If that works as described, the extra output arrives without a new dock.

The counter-thesis is that the 30% belongs to the whole Future of Shipyard project, of which the center is one piece, so a missed target would not indict the center ^[8]. Siemens' chief revenue officer Robert Jones pledged long-term cooperation, the Korea Herald reported ^[10].

We would be wrong if Ulsan or Samho finish their trials with build times unchanged, or if HD Hyundai restates the target on a measure that cannot be read from a delivery schedule before 2030.