Invest1 publisher2 min readPublished
Ether ETF selling faded through a $118 million outflow week
U.S. spot Ether ETFs lost a net $118 million in the week to Oct. 2, after taking in about $689.8 million the week before. The selling shrank as the week went on, and with ETH stuck under $2,800, Glamsterdam's Oct. 6 Sepolia activation is the dated event to watch.
The Investor · Invest desk
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What happened
- ETH reached about $2,775 intraday on Oct. 2 but failed to hold the gain and fell back below $2,700.
- ETH gained 32.6% in August and about 8.8% in September, finishing September around $2,685.
- Arkham Intelligence said BlackRock's Ether funds bought about $1.57 billion of ETH for their investors in the 20 days to Sept. 17.
- ETH exchange inflows and outflows tracked each other closely for most of September, according to data from CryptoQuant analyst R3N.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- constraint The ETF outflow is too small against ETH's market value to explain the stall by itself, so a break of $2,800 needs buyers the fund data do not yet show.
- contradiction Arkham's mid-September BlackRock buying and Farside's early-October outflows cover different windows, so demand sized off the BlackRock data overstates what fund investors are doing now.
- exposure A slip on Sepolia would leave Glamsterdam with no scheduled date at all, because its mainnet timing is still undecided, in a week when ETF flows had already turned negative.
Farside's daily figures show how the week built up. Outflows were $59.6 million on Sept. 30, $55.4 million on Oct. 1 and $17.3 million on Oct. 2 [12]. Those three sessions sum to $132.3 million [1], more than the week's roughly $118 million net [2], so the sessions before Sept. 30 must have taken in about $14 million [2]. By Oct. 2 the daily outflow was about 71% smaller than on Sept. 30 [3].
Against a market capitalization near $328 billion [5], the week's outflow comes to about 0.036% of the asset [4]. It handed back about 17% of the prior week's inflow [5], and the two weeks together still netted roughly $572 million in [6]. Arkham's 20-day BlackRock figure [11] works out to about $78.5 million a day [7]. At that pace, BlackRock's funds bought in a day and a half what the whole U.S. Ether ETF group lost in the week [8]. Fund investors stopped adding at that rate as October began [12].
ETH needs about 3.9% to reach $2,800 [9] and about 11.3% to reach $3,000 [10], while the top of the $2,400 to $2,500 support zone sits about 7.2% below [11]. The September run from roughly $2,398 on Sept. 15 stopped at $2,775 on Sept. 21 [7], and the Oct. 2 attempt topped out at the same price [6]. Monthly RSI is 51.53, just above the neutral 50, and the monthly MACD line, near -98.3 against a signal around -66.4, has not crossed [10]. The exchange flows R3N tracked through September moved in balance [14].
If ETF buying returns at anything near the prior week's pace and carries ETH through $2,800 before Oct. 6, fund cash is setting the price. The testnet date would then be a side event. A Sepolia activation on Oct. 6, the date crypto.news reports [3], followed by no price response would mean the upgrade is not a near-term price input.
I think Oct. 6 is the better marker for the coming week. It produces a result on a set date [3], while the $2,775 to $2,800 zone has turned ETH back twice with no deadline attached [6] [7]. The counter-case is fair: a testnet activation is an engineering step, and the crypto.news report does not show that earlier testnet dates moved ETH's price. A week of fund inflows in the hundreds of millions, with ETH closing above $2,800 before Oct. 6, would prove the view wrong.
What to watch
- Whether Glamsterdam activates on Sepolia on Oct. 6 as scheduled, and whether a mainnet date is set afterward.
- Whether the next week of Farside's daily Ether ETF data turns positive or resumes the selling that hit Sept. 30.
- A drop through roughly $2,560 to $2,565, the level the technical analysis cited by crypto.news says would weaken the breakout setup.