Employer health costs are set to rise 8.2% in 2027, the most since 2003
Marsh projects US employer health costs will rise 8.2% per employee in 2027, the steepest increase since 2003. Employers plan to pass more of it to workers, while one plan vendor says the claims data behind renewals arrives months late.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
Employers said health costs would climb 11 percent if they took no action. Marsh projects employer health costs will rise 8.2 percent per employee in 2027. 59 percent of employers plan cost-cutting changes such as higher deductibles.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Health cost rise if no action, as employers said | 11% | 3 | |
| Marsh projection, 2027 | 8.2% per employee | 1 | |
| Plan cost-cutting changes | 59% of employers | 4 |
What happened
- Fifty-nine percent of surveyed employers plan cost-cutting changes such as higher deductibles, according to Marsh.
- A separate Marsh survey found that roughly two in three employers with at least 500 workers expect to shift a larger share of premiums onto employees.
- Larry Hightower of Vxtra Health says self-insured employers typically get claims updates only every 90 days or every six months, well after most spending has occurred.
- In the National Alliance of Healthcare Purchaser Coalitions' 2026 poll of 408 employers, those with full claims access averaged 11.9 high-value strategies, against 7.9 for the rest.
Why it matters
- What it costs cost Workers in plans that raise premium share will see deductions climb by more than the average, so the average cost trend understates what those employees pay.
- What it limits constraint Hightower said stop-loss carriers without accurate data on a large claim will price the market higher to protect themselves, so an employer's data gap can turn into a higher premium.
- Who has to decide decision Fully insured employers typically have the weakest data rights and show the widest gap between expectations and containment, and may need to open the data conversation before renewal instead of during it.
The 8.2% figure [1] needs a baseline before it goes into a budget. Marsh's survey of more than 1,800 US employers, collected between June 10 and August 10, 2026 [2], found that employers said costs would climb 11% if they took no action [3]. That is 2.8 points above the headline number [13]. The report does not say whether the 8.2% already counts the changes employers plan. Aon and Business Group on Health have published pre-mitigation forecasts of 9.5% and 9.2% for 2027 [6], which put them 1.3 and 1.0 points above Marsh's figure [15][16].
Marsh's actuaries attribute roughly one percentage point each to GLP-1 weight loss drugs, AI-enabled claims submission software and disputes under the No Surprises Act's Independent Dispute Resolution process [7]. Those national figures say little about what is going on inside any one employer's plan [12]. Vxtra Health, which runs a healthcare model for self-insured, middle-market employers, is led by founder and CEO Larry Hightower [20]. He said, "All the old systems are transaction systems. They're not analytics." [18] His company runs a model for the kind of employer he is describing, so this is a vendor's account.
The delay shows up in employer decisions, Hightower said: "In the case of this year, they delay hiring decisions, they don't give promotions." [19] The survey evidence on data access is firmer than that anecdote. The National Alliance of Healthcare Purchaser Coalitions' Pulse of the Purchaser puts the gap between full and limited claims access at 4.0 strategies per employer [14]. In the 2025 edition, one in three employers reported lacking access to their complete claims data, and four in ten reported that vendors had refused to hand it over [9].
Self-funding raises the stakes. After the Affordable Care Act subsidies expired, self-funded employer plans grew as the individual market shrank [22], and each of those employers carries claims risk directly.
We think the sequencing is the exposure. Raising employee cost-sharing is a decision an employer can make this quarter. Faster claims data is a contract term, and the report's advice is that claims data access belongs on the negotiating list when vendor contracts are set or renewed [11]. An employer that does the first without the second would enter next year's round with the same lag.
What to watch
- Whether Marsh or other consultancies clarify if the 8.2% is measured before or after employer mitigation, which decides how it compares with Aon's 9.5% and Business Group on Health's 9.2%.
- How many of the roughly two-thirds of large employers that expect to raise employees' premium share actually do so in 2027 plan designs.
- Whether claims data access terms start appearing in vendor renewals, and any later National Alliance figure on how many employers still cannot get complete claims data.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Marsh projects employer health costs will rise 8.2 percent per employee in 2027, the steepest increase since 2003.
- [2]
Marsh's 2026 National Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Plans collected responses from more than 1,800 US employers between June 10 and August 10, 2026.
- [3]
Employers said costs would climb 11 percent if they took no action.
- [4]
59 percent of employers plan cost-cutting changes such as higher deductibles.
- [5]
A separate Marsh survey found about two-thirds of employers with 500 or more workers expect to raise employees' share of premiums, so many workers will see paycheck deductions rise by more than the average.
- [6]
Aon and Business Group on Health have published similar pre-mitigation forecasts of 9.5 percent and 9.2 percent for 2027.
- [7]
Marsh's actuaries attribute roughly one percentage point each to GLP-1 weight loss drugs, AI-enabled claims submission software and disputes under the No Surprises Act's Independent Dispute Resolution process.
- [8]
The National Alliance of Healthcare Purchaser Coalitions' 2026 Pulse of the Purchaser survey polled 408 employers in May and June 2026; employers with full access to medical and pharmacy claims data deployed an average of 11.9 high-value purchasing strategies, compared with 7.9 for employers with limited, no or uncertain access.
- [9]
In the 2025 edition of the Pulse of the Purchaser survey, a third of employers said they could not access complete claims data, and four in ten said vendors had refused to provide it.
- [10]
Fully insured employers, who typically have the weakest data rights, showed the widest gap between cost expectations and cost-containment activity.
- [11]
Claims data access belongs on the negotiating list when vendor contracts are set or renewed, and fully insured employers may need to start that conversation before the next renewal cycle instead of during it.
- [12]
Knowing the national drivers does not tell an employer what is happening inside its own plan.
- [13]
The 11% no-action figure is 2.8 percentage points above the 8.2% headline projection.
- [14]
Employers with full claims access deployed 4.0 more high-value purchasing strategies on average than those with limited, no or uncertain access.
- [15]
Aon's 9.5% pre-mitigation forecast is 1.3 percentage points above Marsh's 8.2%.
- [16]
Business Group on Health's 9.2% pre-mitigation forecast is 1.0 percentage point above Marsh's 8.2%.
- [17]
Larry Hightower describes a typical pattern in which self-insured employers receive claims updates every 90 days or every six months, well after most of the spending has occurred.
- [18]
Hightower said, "All the old systems are transaction systems. They're not analytics."
- [19]
Hightower said, "In the case of this year, they delay hiring decisions, they don't give promotions."
- [20]
Larry Hightower is founder and CEO of Vxtra Health in Atlanta, which runs a healthcare model for self-insured, middle-market employers.
- [21]
Hightower said, "If the stop-loss carrier doesn't have accurate data to manage their exposure to a large catastrophic claim, they're going to price the market higher in order to protect themselves."
- [22]
Following the expiration of Affordable Care Act subsidies, self-funded employer plans grew as the individual market shrank, which leaves more employers carrying claims risk directly.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- hcamag.comEmployer health costs rise 8.2% in 2027 as claims data lags
1 article · October 13, 2026
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