DeVoe's record RIA year needs 79 more deals, two fewer than each of the last two fourth quarters

DeVoe's record is closer than a 17% drop suggests. A record needs 79 more deals in the fourth quarter to reach 323 ^[8]. That puts the first nine months at 244 ^[17], or about 81 a quarter ^[18], so the third quarter's 77 ^[1] ran below the pace. The 79 still needed is two more than that 77 ^[19] and two fewer than the 81 DeVoe counted in the fourth quarters of both 2025 and 2024 ^[9][20].

How big the drop is depends on whose count it is. A 17% fall to 77 implies roughly 93 a year earlier ^[21], the figure Piper Sandler reports for the same quarter of 2025 ^[5]. Piper's quarter is down 4.3% ^[22]; Fintrx's is down 3.2% ^[23]. DeVoe and Piper both use a $100 million asset floor ^[4][5], yet they land 12 deals apart this year ^[25]. The report does not explain the gap.

DeVoe's explanation is about attention. Volatility hit smaller firms, where leaders sit close to clients ^[2]. "Time spent reassuring clients is time not spent on M&A," DeVoe's analysts wrote ^[3]. Piper Sandler's view is firmer. "We are not seeing a slowdown in deal activity," said Cameron Hoerner, a managing director in its financial services group ^[6]. DeVoe took the middle line: "The third-quarter slowdown has put a record year in doubt, but it has not taken one off the table" ^[7].

Fintrx shows how a record can sit beside a slow quarter. Its stricter count, which leaves out private equity, bank and insurer buyers ^[10], is already 32 deals, or 16.6%, above its entire 2025 ^[24]. The largest dealmakers took about 65% of the AUM acquired in the quarter ^[12]. Fintrx analysts wrote that the concentration fits "a small number of transformative platform acquisitions sitting atop a large base of sub-$1B activity" ^[13].

MarshBerry sets the highest bar. It counts 294 deals through September ^[14], so a full year above 400 needs 106 in the fourth quarter ^[29], against a 98-a-quarter average so far, about 8% higher ^[30]. Managing Director Kim Kovalski wrote that "it is too early to tell for certain" but that MarshBerry "expects full year 2026 deal count to potentially break the 400-deal threshold" ^[28]. Director John Orsini said "All the major acquirers are busier than ever" ^[15], and he put a limit on the quarter: a deal that signs a letter of intent now will not close this year, he said ^[27]. The firm tallies by the period in which a deal occurred and can add deals to earlier quarters retroactively, so late additions can lift the 294 ^[16].

We think the record is more likely than not on DeVoe's count. The 79 it needs sits between the 77 of the volatile quarter and the 81 of the last two fourth quarters ^[19][20]. The counter-case is capacity: if Orsini is right that nothing signed now closes before year-end ^[27], the fourth quarter can only deliver what is already in the pipeline. A fourth quarter that repeats the 77 would finish the year at 321, two short of 323 ^[26].