An $811 million liquidation wave trimmed crypto open interest by only about 2%
Crypto liquidations of $811 million cut open interest by only about 2%, to $140.9 billion, Bitget Research said before the US CPI release. Analysts quoted by crypto.news say a hot reading could force more selling and a soft one could squeeze shorts.
The Investor · Invest desk
Key figures: market-wide crypto open interest stood at $140.9 billion pre-CPI, per Bitget Research, against roughly $143.8 billion before the selloff, implied by the about 2% fall. The $811 million liquidated is about 0.58% of the open interest still outstanding.
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market-wide crypto open interest, pre-CPI | $140.9 billion | 2 | |
| Open interest before the selloff, roughly | $143.8 billion | implied by the about 2% fall | 21 |
| $811M liquidated as share of open interest, about | 0.58% | of $140.9 billion still outstanding | 25 |
What happened
- Long positions accounted for most of the losses in the 24 hours to Tuesday morning, according to CoinGlass data cited in the Bitget Research briefing.
- The same briefing placed the 10-year Treasury yield around 5.20% going into the inflation release.
- Bitget Wallet's Lacie Zhang put the odds of an October Fed hold near 77% and said investors still largely expect one more rate increase later this year.
- Zhang's forecast ranges are 0.5%-0.6% monthly and 3.6%-3.7% annual for headline CPI, and near 0.2% monthly and 2.4%-2.5% annual for core.
- Nansen's Nicolai Sondergaard said Bitcoin ETFs took in $175.7 million on Oct. 13, after $678.9 million of withdrawals during Oct. 5-9.
Why it matters
- exposure The $811 million is about 0.58% of the open interest still outstanding, so a wave of the same size would leave more than 99% of positions open.
- contradiction Zhang's own forecast has core inflation near 0.2% a month, yet she names persistent core as the risk investors underestimate, so the trigger would be a miss against her own base case.
- decision Positioning into the print comes down to Zhang's two levels: $81,000 to $82,000 as support, and a sustained move through $84,500 to $85,000 as a confirmed breakout.
- constraint ETF buying is a thin offset: inflows have recovered about 26% of the early-October withdrawals, and Nansen's on-chain sample does not yet back the recovery.
Forced selling took out about 2% of open interest, or rather the two moved together, since nothing in the report says how much of the fall was forced. Taking the 2% at face value, it implies open interest of roughly $143.8 billion before the selloff [21] and a reduction of about $2.9 billion [22], more than three times the $811 million liquidated [23]. If both figures cover the same period, the liquidated share of what left the market was about 28% [26].
The report prints one line in the Bitget section without a named speaker: "The latest liquidation wave has reduced leverage in Bitcoin, but it may not have fully reset market positioning." [4] The text around it attributes the same view to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research [5]. Lee also said the wave may have cleared some of the positions most exposed to falling prices and could therefore limit later selling [6]. The follow-on data lean his way so far: the next 24-hour total was $140 million [3], about 17% of the first day's $811 million [24].
Direction is not settled either. Lee said an unexpected inflation number could push positioning through another adjustment, with traders taking a fresh look at Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy [15], and that a softer reading could produce a sharp rebound if short positions come under pressure [16]. BTSE's Jeff Mei gave the range on Oct. 12: below $80,000 if inflation is unexpectedly strong, a recovery toward $86,000 or higher if it is softer [12]. The gap between those two markers is $6,000, about 7.5% of the lower one [20].
In our view the numbers show that leverage remains and say little about whether it is fragile. That depends on the print. crypto.news noted that Lee's warning was conditional on the data and on the amount of leverage still in place [17]. A reading near the forecast from Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet, with liquidations holding near $140 million a day and open interest near $140.9 billion, would mean the leftover positions were not the weak ones. The case that breaks the thesis the other way is a hot core number: Zhang's pre-release assessment warns that core inflation running hot, or Treasury yields coming under pressure again, could reprice markets more sharply than they expect [18].
What to watch
- Whether core CPI prints above the roughly 0.2% monthly pace Zhang forecast, and how the 10-year yield moves in response.
- CoinGlass liquidation totals and open interest in the 24 hours after the release, against the $140 million follow-on pace and the $140.9 billion level.
- Whether Bitcoin holds Zhang's support zone or fails to sustain a breakout, and whether ETF flows after Oct. 13 stay positive.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
CoinGlass data cited in a Bitget Research briefing showed $811 million in crypto liquidations during the 24 hours to Tuesday morning, with long positions accounting for most losses.
- [2]
Market-wide crypto open interest was down only about 2% at $140.9 billion in the analysts' pre-CPI assessment.
- [3]
The subsequent 24-hour liquidation total had eased to $140 million.
- [4]
"The latest liquidation wave has reduced leverage in Bitcoin, but it may not have fully reset market positioning."
- [5]
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, warned that the latest forced selling may have removed some vulnerable Bitcoin positions without fully clearing the leverage that could fuel another decline.
- [6]
Lee said the earlier liquidation wave may have cleared some of the positions most exposed to falling prices, potentially limiting subsequent selling pressure.
- [7]
The Bitget briefing placed the 10-year Treasury yield around 5.20%.
- [8]
Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, put the probability of an October Fed hold near 77%, and said investors still largely expect one additional rate increase later this year.
- [9]
Zhang's forecast ranges put headline CPI at approximately 0.5%-0.6% month-on-month and 3.6%-3.7% year-on-year, and core inflation near 0.2% monthly and 2.4%-2.5% annually.
- [10]
Zhang identified persistent core inflation as the risk investors may be underestimating, particularly if energy spillovers, tariffs or sustained demand keep price pressures elevated.
- [11]
Zhang identified $81,000-$82,000 support and a sustained $84,500-$85,000 breakout as levels to watch for Bitcoin.
- [12]
On Oct. 12, BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei said unexpectedly strong inflation could push Bitcoin below $80,000, and a softer reading could support a recovery toward $86,000 or higher.
- [13]
Bitcoin ETFs attracted $175.7 million on Oct. 13, following $678.9 million in withdrawals during Oct. 5-9.
- [14]
Sondergaard described a recovery in Bitcoin ETF demand that has yet to receive clear support from Nansen's on-chain trading sample.
- [15]
Lee warned that an inflation surprise could force another adjustment as traders reassess Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy.
- [16]
Lee said softer inflation could produce a sharp rebound if traders rebuild risk exposure and short positions come under pressure.
- [17]
Lee's warning was conditional on the data and the amount of leverage still in place.
- [18]
Zhang warned that a hotter core reading or renewed pressure on Treasury yields could force a sharper repricing than markets currently anticipate.
- [19]
The $175.7 million ETF inflow on Oct. 13 recovers about 26% of the $678.9 million withdrawn during Oct. 5-9.
- [20]
The $6,000 gap between Mei's $80,000 and $86,000 markers is 7.5% of $80,000.
- [21]
If open interest fell about 2% to $140.9 billion, it stood at roughly $143.8 billion before the selloff.
- [22]
The implied reduction in open interest is about $2.9 billion.
- [23]
The implied $2.9 billion reduction is more than three times the $811 million liquidated.
- [24]
The $140 million follow-on liquidation total is about 17% of the $811 million first-day total.
- [25]
The $811 million liquidated is about 0.58% of the $140.9 billion open interest still outstanding.
- [26]
If both figures cover the same period, the $811 million liquidated is about 28% of the roughly $2.9 billion fall in open interest.
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Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- crypto.newsBitcoin risks another leverage shakeout if US CPI runs hot, analysts warn
1 article · October 14, 2026
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