Cox Automotive cuts its 2026 used-car price forecast to 0.2%, a tenth of its July call

The Manheim index measures prices at Cox's own U.S. wholesale auctions ^[4], and its long-run average annual gain is about 2.3% ^[11]. Cox's July call of 2% was already 0.3 points under that average ^[1][20]. The move to 0.2% takes out 1.8 points, or 90% of the gain Cox had projected ^[16]. Add last year's 0.4% ^[11] and two years of auction prices compound to roughly 0.6%, against about 4.7% had the index held its long-run pace, a shortfall of about four points ^[18].

The cut can be read three ways. On a credit reading, higher rates price buyers out of loans, and the auction value of every car securing one falls with them. On a fuel reading, a September record for gasoline, about 13% above the old one ^[7][17], moved demand toward smaller cars. Cox said EVs and smaller fuel-efficient models gained value in the quarter while large trucks and SUVs performed poorly ^[8]. The third reading comes from Jeremy Robb, Cox's chief economist. "Many of the metrics we routinely track are converging back toward pre-pandemic norms, but the road to get there has been anything but smooth," he said ^[14].

The evidence favors fuel and normalization, with one caveat. A financing squeeze would hit small cars as well, and Cox said consumer demand for used vehicles is holding up reasonably well ^[9]. The price gap fits that demand: the average used listing in August was $27,239 against more than $50,000 for a new vehicle ^[12], so a used car cost under 55% of a new one ^[19].

The caveat is in Robb's own statement. "The first half of the year actually showed more appreciation than usual, even in the face of higher fuel prices. But with the conflict in the Middle East ongoing, diesel prices at record highs, and interest rates climbing rapidly, increasingly worrying both businesses and consumers, wholesale prices have felt the sting," Robb said ^[3]. Prices rose through expensive fuel in the first half. That leaves rising rates as the obvious second cause of the September turn. Auction prices cannot tell a buyer who was refused a loan from one who no longer wants a large truck, and neither report includes loan delinquency data.

Robb also described the season the market is now in. "We are in the weakest season for wholesale valuations, and as September closed, depreciation was steeper than we typically see this time of year," he said ^[6]. The fuel reading fails if fourth-quarter losses reach EVs and small cars, the segments that gained in the third quarter ^[8]. Losses across every segment would make financing costs the better explanation. Cox named post-election policy and the timing of Chinese EV imports as the critical variables for 2027 ^[15]. "Taken together, we're entering Q4 with our antennas up," Robb said ^[13].