Hike odds in the high 80s pull copper off its $14,500 record

A 0.4% month, compounded, is about 4.9% a year, and a 0.3% core month about 3.7% ^[1][2][1][2]. Both run hotter than the 3.4% trailing figure that made the headline ^[1]. Market-implied pricing has the September 15-16 hike at roughly 85 to 88 percent, so pricing leaves 12 to 15 percent on no move ^[3][5].

The record was quoted in two units. London went past $14,500 a metric ton earlier in September, and COMEX neared $6.8 a pound ^[4][5]. At 2,204.62 pounds to the tonne, $14,500 works out at about $6.58 a pound, which puts COMEX around $491 a tonne, or 3.4%, above the London figure ^[3][4]. Both source numbers are approximate, so treat that spread as rough. It is a price on the tariff disruption Crypto Briefing credits, along with tight global supply, for the record itself ^[5].

The physical picture is the one it was before the print. The International Energy Agency has repeatedly flagged copper as one of the critical minerals most at risk of a supply shortfall in the coming decade, and that warning predates this month's tape ^[8]. The repricing runs through the dollar and through the cost of credit, both financial ^[7]. Crypto Briefing does not say how far copper has fallen from the high ^[12].

So the division between the rate path and physical demand cannot be sized from what has been published, and a rally attributed to liquidity is being attributed on timing. And it runs past one meeting. Persistent inflation, much of it energy, has kept the Fed hawkish under Chair Kevin Warsh through 2026, and markets have priced multiple increases across the year ^[10].

I would expect the retreat to be small against the size of the run, because a 25-basis-point move leaves supply and tariffs where they are ^[5]. The counter is compounding: a trader financing physical metal through a year of increases pays more at every roll, and the biggest buyers pay for it in a currency that keeps getting dearer ^[10][7]. A hawkish hike followed by copper back above $14,500 within a week would date the slide to positioning ^[4]. Copper still below that level a month out would say the borrowing-cost channel is doing more damage than I credit, and I was early.