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Official US inflation measure used in the piece to deflate restaurant sales and to show flat-to-falling vehicle prices.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
The steepest annual decline since 1963 is being credited to most favored nation deals. The contracts are not public, the models are not live, and the index measures pharmacy receipts.
Reality
The bank's own estimate is 25%. The more useful detail is that the market's hike probability travelled from 12% to 45% on oil headlines, not on inflation prints.
Reality
Headline CPI eased a tenth to 3.4% and core held at 2.5%. Neither number pays for a nine-percent monthly rally; the consensus that the Fed does nothing does.
Reality
The University of Michigan's share of consumers expecting income to outpace inflation has fallen from 18% in December 2024 to 8%. Plans that assume full cost pass-through look fragile.
Reality
July 2026 CPI printed at 3.4%, in line. BlackRock's fixed-income CIO argues the residual sits in shelter and services, where the policy rate has little grip.
Reality
Unadjusted spending rose 0.9% in July and 5.2% year over year, with restaurants up 6.0%. The seasonally adjusted decline mostly reflects Prime Day moving from July to June.
Reality