US employers added 29,000 jobs in September while the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut 60,000 from its July and August counts. With layoffs still falling, the data describe a hiring freeze that argues for slowing headcount plans and holding cuts in reserve.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence75
Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading since April 2014. Economist James Knightley says consumers keep spending anyway, so the survey and his account of spending point in opposite directions.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 34%
- Investor
- Investor 61%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence74
US initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 last week, below the 200,000 forecast, as employers kept holding off on layoffs. That leaves an October Fed hike turning on inflation, where August's 3.4% PCE reading came in under the 3.7% forecast.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence66
US consumer spending rose 6.1% in the year to August before inflation and 2.6% after it, Bureau of Economic Analysis data show. Prices rose faster in August alone than over the year, so the report argues for a slower path of rate cuts.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Spending and Michigan sentiment both slipped, pushing odds of a Fed hold to 71.2%. For rate-sensitive books, the print that removes hike risk adds credit risk.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 30%
- Investor
- Investor 65%
Reality
- Evidence84
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives30
- Confidence78
July CPI at 0.1% and flat PPI took the near-term rate scare off the table. What is left holding up records above 7,800 is a bet on how long GPUs stay useful.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 24%
- Investor
- Investor 67%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
Core services and a sudden run-up in computer prices are holding the Fed's preferred gauge 1.35 points above target. Futures put the September choice at hold or hike.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 32%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence74
US manufacturers booked $88 billion of core capital goods orders in August, up 14.1% from a year earlier, according to Census Bureau data. Wolf Richter credits the AI build-out, but orders can sit in backlog for months, longer if reported turbine-blade shortages persist.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
AARP and the Senior Citizens League project a 2027 Social Security raise of 3.5% to 3.6%, the largest since 2023, with diesel above $6.50 among the drivers. It repays prices already recorded through September, and how far it stretches in 2027 turns on tariffs and chips as much as fuel.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
The Congressional Budget Office counts about $38bn of additional Pentagon spending in five months, $21.7bn of it replacing spent munitions, and says returning inventories to their previous levels takes at least five years.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives50
- Confidence60
The 10-year broke a 5% level it had bounced against for two weeks, and the curve from two to thirty years now sits between 4.91% and 5.39%. A Treasury buyback offer the same morning did not slow it.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
Todd Vasos told a Goldman Sachs conference that middle and upper-middle households now behave like Dollar General's under-$45,000 core shopper. The national gasoline average is $4.476 a gallon, up from $3.189.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives72
- Confidence48
The Fed's Q2 accounts show household money-market holdings up 12.8% over the year to $5.1 trillion at yields below 3.75% after fees, with August CPI at 3.4% and the small-CD balances savers control flat for seven months.
Reality
- Evidence63
- Adoption78
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives32
- Confidence60
Jet fuel is 83% above its pre-war price and Avelo's chief executive says carriers will have to pass that on. A Q4 travel line sized on last autumn's $290 average domestic seat is now short by about a third.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
A 3.4% headline CPI print has pushed odds on a September 15-16 Fed hike into the high 80s. Copper is off a record above $14,500 a tonne, and the two reasons given for that record, tight supply and tariff risk, are unchanged.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence28
Processed intermediate goods rose 11.5 percent over 12 months while the prices firms finally charge rose 5.4 percent. Diesel accounts for most of August's monthly move, and the measure that excludes distributor margins accounts for the rest.
Publishers:bls.gov · wolfstreet.com Reality
- Evidence88
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives40
- Confidence74
The 30-year mortgage sits 41 basis points above where it was last September, existing home sales have fallen three months running, and August's monthly inflation stepped back up to 0.4%. Housing-exposed plans need a new base case.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Brent stayed above $100 even after a 2.81% drop, U.S. diesel reached $6.06 a gallon, and Saudi output fell to a three-decade low. Reported hike odds of 86.5% leave 13.5% for the outcome that would move more.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Wolf Richter annualizes August's 0.40% monthly rise at 4.9% and core services at 4.0%, while the year-over-year rates for the headline index and for core services both sat where July left them, at 3.4% and 3.0%.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Treasury tripled a routine operation and pointed it at the two maturities where the curve is printing out of order, which is a clearer statement about where it thinks the market is thin than anything in the release itself.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives62
- Confidence34