Apple reportedly orders at least 15% fewer iPhone 18 Pro components for October than it first requested

The iPhone 17 Pro started at $1,099 and the 17 Pro Max at $1,199 ^[11], so the increases are 9.1% and 8.3% ^[12]. IDC expects the average selling price of a smartphone to rise 27.6% to $581 ^[8]. That implies an average near $455 before the increase ^[13], and puts Apple's sticker step at a third or less of the industry's average rise ^[14]. The two figures are not like for like, since an average selling price moves with product mix as well as list prices.

The reported cut is also narrow. The order figure is Nikkei's, relayed by Fortune ^[2], it covers October ^[2], and it applies to components for two models ^[1]. Fortune is silent on whether orders for the $2,000 iPhone Duo changed ^[9]. Its account describes a smaller order ^[1] and mentions no price change.

We think the cut says more about this lineup than about a $100 threshold. Apple launched only premium models this fall ^[9] and held the standard iPhone 18 back to spring 2027, alongside the iPhone 18e and a second-generation iPhone Air ^[10]. A buyer who balks at $1,199 ^[4] has no cheaper iPhone 18 to move to until then.

The price explanation could still be right. AI data centers are taking a growing share of memory supply ^[5], and J.P. Morgan economist Abiel Reinhart puts the producer price index for storage devices up 23% since the end of 2024 and the import price index for computers, peripherals and parts up 37% ^[6].

Order data for the Duo would separate the two. If a price threshold were the cause, the most expensive model should soften first, so a Duo order cut of similar size would make us give price more weight.