Leaked AMD Gainsborough chip points to a Steam Deck 2 mostly through a name AMD picked

The person this leak is for owns a Steam Deck that is four and a half years old ^[1]. Valve has told that person more than once that a sequel waits on a chip with a "generational leap" in performance and efficiency ^[1]. Gainsborough gives them a codename to weigh against the handhelds already on sale ^[2].

The documents themselves are narrow. AMD's latest drivers name the chip ^[2]. IT Home found import/export records of AMD shipping test equipment for it, and took that as a sign that a potential customer may already be testing the part ^[6]. Semi-custom means it was designed for one specific customer ^[3]. Neither the drivers nor the records name that customer ^[2][6].

The case for Valve rests on a name. Aerith, the first Deck chip's codename, is a Final Fantasy VII character whose surname is Gainsborough ^[4]. Gizmodo wrote that this "seems like a pretty strong hint" ^[5]. But Valve designers told The Verge that AMD picks those names, and that Valve didn't really want them ^[9]. AMD also sells the family to other companies: the Ryzen Z2 A that Microsoft and Asus put in the $500 Xbox Ally is an "Aerith Plus" chip ^[10].

The package size is a harder fact. Import records list Gainsborough at 25mm by 25mm ^[7], and the original Aerith reportedly measured 19mm by 19mm ^[11]. That is about 1.7 times the footprint, 625 square millimeters against 361 ^[21]. The Verge called that large for a Steam Deck. It allowed that the chip could still be efficient, and cheaper, if it stays close to AMD's own 25mm Ryzen Z3 ^[20].

Semi-custom parts also change hands. The original Deck chip was long rumored to have been designed for a Magic Leap headset and offered to tablet makers before Valve took it, and parts of it went unused ^[12]. The Verge's reporter wrote, "I'm a tad skeptical" ^[19].

I'd split the decision into two questions. The first is whether the handheld you own still runs your library at settings you accept. The second is whether you need a new device before late 2027, which is the earliest window Moore's Law is Dead has suggested ^[22]. Gizmodo calls the leaker mostly reliable ^[23]. If your current Deck holds up, the leak changes nothing on either side of that date. If it struggles and you need something soon, buy a handheld that ships today, because Gainsborough is still a forecast. Only the owner whose Deck struggles and who can wait past 2027 has a reason to hold out for this chip.

That owner should budget without the old anchor. Gizmodo wrote that nobody, Valve included, can estimate what a Steam Deck 2 will cost ^[18]. It also wrote that RAM prices ended any chance of the Steam Machine or Steam Frame costing less than $1,000 ^[15]. Valve software developer Pierre-Loup Griffais told IGN that the RAM crisis had not changed Valve's Steam Deck 2 plans, according to Gizmodo ^[16]. The original Steam Deck cost $400 ^[17].