Science1 publisher2 min readPublished
El Nino at a record 3.11C anomaly tilts North American winter odds toward a wet South
University of Maine data put the 2026 El Nino's daily anomaly at 3.11C, above a record that had stood since November 2015. The USGS says such events tilt winter odds toward a wet South and a dry Northwest and Ohio Valley, but do not guarantee any pattern.
The Scientist · Science desk
What happened
- Strong El Nino conditions typically push the jet stream south, bringing high winds and rain, snow, sleet or ice that can cause extreme flooding.
- The USGS says ice storms are more frequent in eastern states such as Louisiana, while blizzards are more common in the western states.
- Higher vertical wind shear is expected to keep contiguous-US hurricanes below normal, because it stops tropical storms from developing and strengthening.
- The USGS expects more nor'easters in the Northeast as the jet stream carries storms east, so heavy snow is possible even in a warm winter.
- Climate Data Canada says coastal Canada faces higher odds of extreme storms and flooding, while central regions face a higher drought risk.
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Why it matters
- constraint The USGS describes El Nino as a tilt with no odds attached, so operators in the South and Ohio Valley can pick a direction to prepare in but have little basis for sizing reserves or contracts.
- decision Northeast operators cannot treat a warm-leaning outlook as a light snow season, since more nor'easters would keep snow removal and coastal storm response in the budget.
- exposure A company that trims hurricane cover across the US on the El Nino outlook leaves its Hawaii sites exposed to a season that typically runs more intense.
The 3.11C figure comes from the University of Maine's Climate Change Institute. The article lists the institute's daily sea surface temperature data among its sources [1][3]. It does not say which stretch of ocean the anomaly covers or which years define the baseline. The figure is also one day's reading. The mark it passed was set in November 2015 [2] and had stood for more than ten years [1].
Getting from a record day to a winter outlook takes a different kind of evidence. The USGS position, as the article relays it, is that even a Super El Nino does not guarantee a particular weather pattern. It tilts the scales toward certain conditions [6].
Only one regional tendency comes with a size. In previous strong events, according to the USGS, temperatures in the Midwest and northern states climbed 3 to 8F or more above the 20th-century average, with fewer cold snaps [8][7]. That range covers several past events and is measured against a 20th-century baseline. It describes what strong El Ninos have done before, and it is the closest thing to an effect size in the material. Canada leans warmer and drier as well [15]. Southern states can turn cool under the southward jet stream [9].
The California evidence points one way only. According to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, some of the state's wettest years on record were Super El Nino events, including 1982 to 1983 and 1997 to 1998 [14]. That statement picks El Nino years out of a list of wet years. A planner needs the reverse: of all the Super El Nino winters, how many were wet. The article names two.
In my view the evidence supports preparing now for the direction of each regional risk: flooding and ice in the South, and a drier season in the Northwest and Ohio Valley [9][10][5]. Sizing those preparations to the record would go beyond the evidence, because the regional tendencies are drawn from how past strong events behaved [5][8]. Outside North America, the article expects tropical countries in the Global South to be hit hardest [4].
What to watch
- Whether the Climate Change Institute's daily sea surface readings stay above the November 2015 mark in the coming weeks or fall back.
- Whether early-winter storms follow a southward jet stream into the South and California, the first test of the tilt the USGS describes.
- Whether central Canada begins to show the drought risk Climate Data Canada flags while its coasts take the storms.