Nonpartisan San Francisco-based think tank that researches California economic, social and political issues and runs the widely cited PPIC Statewide Survey.
California's Proposition 3 would make the 10.3% to 12.3% top income tax rates permanent, affecting nearly 376,000 taxpayers, American Banker reported. The rates now lapse in 2031, so a passing vote changes what clients owe in every later year.
Reality
California's Prop 40 would levy a one-time 5% tax on the assets of residents worth over $1 billion, raising $100 billion by its union backer's estimate. Its lasting effect on a top-heavy, market-sensitive budget turns on repetition, the very spread opponents predict when they call it a Trojan horse.
Reality
Opponents of California's one-time 5% billionaire tax have raised more than $300 million, about ten times what its backers have. For the few hundred people in scope, residency was fixed on Jan. 1, 2026, so payment and a rival nullifying measure are what remain open.
Reality
PPIC's September survey puts Prop 40 at 52%, Prop 41 at 51% and Prop 42 at 54%, and Prop 40 takes effect only if it outpolls both in yes votes. Every gap between the three sits inside a 3.8-point margin of error.
Reality
A letter from six Nobel economists asks Californians to treat Proposition 40 as the start of a movement other states, Washington and other countries copy. The vote is in November, and the state's own pollster has supporters behind.
Reality
Proposition 40 would take 5% once from anyone worth over $1 billion. August polling puts it at 48% among likely voters and 75% among 18-to-29s. The composition of the November electorate is the only number that decides it.
Reality