Nvidia has named eight Australian operators and a 2027 target of up to two gigawatts. The announcement leaves out per-site dates, price, customers and power supply, which is the part a buyer has to sign.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives72
- Confidence55
Public miners have announced $70 billion to $100 billion of AI and HPC contracts. Spread across 12-to-15-year terms that is roughly $6 billion a year, and 550 of about 4,000 contracted megawatts are earning it today.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
The five-year deal reported by Bloomberg takes Jane Street's rented GPU commitments to about $19 billion across two vendors, at a firm that already runs its own GPUs in Texas and owns equity in one landlord.
Publishers:disruptionbanking.com
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption62
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives72
- Confidence55
CoinShares marks stabilised data centre capacity at $27m a megawatt and energised mining capacity at $3m, and the conversion cost in between explains why Core Scientific, Keel, Cipher and IREN are walking away from hashrate.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
With CoinShares putting the second-quarter cash cost of a bitcoin at about $75,500 against a $58,400 price, public miners are switching off rigs they own and paying cash to cancel the ones they ordered.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption71
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives63
- Confidence54
Microsoft's fiscal 2026 filing puts $329.1 billion of leases into a queue that starts in fiscal 2027. The 38 gigawatts Bloomberg reported for 2032 would need a slower build than Satya Nadella has guided to.
Publishers:globaldatacenterhub.com
Reality
- Evidence63
- Adoption76
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives55
- Confidence66
CoreWeave has disclosed $5.1bn of equipment financing and Nebius says debt plus one customer contract covers more than 100% of a deployment's capex, which turns an enterprise compute order into a credit judgement.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
Revenue per petahash rose almost exactly in step with the coin in August, so the miners' equity gap says more about how they are funding AI build-outs than about the margin on a mined bitcoin. Luxor's forward curve offers no relief before February.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption67
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives58
- Confidence57
Dowagiac's bitcoin miners went dark on September 1 so that 20 megawatts could be leased to an unnamed California neocloud at roughly $3 million per megawatt-year. The customer's cash in the door so far is $10.6 million.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+58
- Incentives75
- Confidence38
Iren reported $4bn of annual recurring revenue for FY2026 with $1bn of it actually operating, and its own filing says losing committed capacity at a significant customer could hit results and cash flows.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives74
- Confidence62
Jeff Clarke says Dell lifted its annual guidance after repricing for rising component costs, and buyers paid it. If your hardware plan was written before this quarter, that pass-through is what your next quote will carry.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption78
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence56
The Wharton model works backwards from the spending to find the productivity gain that would justify it. The answer is 2.7 times per boom, and its authors say the five firms making that bet face solvency risk if it misses.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund went from $5.52bn at the end of 2025 to $13.67bn in ex-miners and power by March, against roughly $7.46bn of puts on semiconductors, which prices interconnect queues above silicon.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives58
- Confidence34
Peter Schiff says AI bids against Bitcoin for capital, power and space. The contract arithmetic suggests that at the level of the individual site, the argument is already over.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption64
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence38
Horizon 1 is delivered at Childress, Texas. Billing only starts after a five-day GPU validation, which is now the number that matters more than the headline contract value.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+33
- Incentives68
- Confidence33
The Information reports Nvidia would also guarantee OpenAI's lease and SB Energy's project debt at a 10GW Ohio campus. The line between supplier and financier is gone.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
Horizon 1 has been accepted by Microsoft, turning a $9.7bn contract into delivered capacity. Three more 50MW buildings are due at the Texas campus this year.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption56
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives71
- Confidence54
The listed cohort's realized hashrate fell 13.4 percent in six months against a 10.6 percent network decline. Two of its members now earn most of their revenue from something other than mining.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives45
- Confidence54