other
Yemen-based armed movement, formally Ansarallah, controlling much of northern Yemen; has attacked shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
UAE vice president Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed met Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Tuesday, their first high-level meeting since January's split over Yemen. Whether the thaw outlasts a US-Iran deal on Hormuz will show which threat is holding it together.
Reality
Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days only if oil sanctions and the US naval blockade end, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. With Donald Trump rejecting the offer, budgets set this quarter are safer treating the disruption as the base case.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Iran and Oman plan to charge ships to pass Hormuz, and Indonesia briefly floated a toll on Malacca, which carries about 29% of maritime oil flows. With the maritime courts unable to enforce their rulings, passage fees look like a cost that lasts for years.
Reality
Yemen's Houthis are advancing on Bab al-Mandab, the strait carrying 87% of Eritrea's maritime trade by value and US$520 billion of China's a year. Share and dollar value rank the exposed countries differently, and the researchers' US$30 billion estimate for a 30-day blockade is a global total.
Reality
Crude opened Monday higher after President Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal, with December Brent at $98.69 and November WTI at $93.78. Brent has won back 87% of last week's drop and WTI only 44%, held back by talk of a U.S. diesel export ban.
Reality
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement extends a NATO-style attack-on-one clause to a nuclear-armed signatory, and reprices Gulf escalation risk without reference to any US guarantee.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Anthropic's third misuse report says accounts in Houthi-held northern Yemen used Claude Code to write guidance software for three weapons programs, and a weapons analyst doubts the group can build any of them.
Reality
International oil prices have passed $100 while the US Navy narrows its Hormuz escort windows to two a day, and the overland pipeline that was the alternative to the strait is offline after a drone attack.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
The Congressional Budget Office counts about $38bn of additional Pentagon spending in five months, $21.7bn of it replacing spent munitions, and says returning inventories to their previous levels takes at least five years.
Reality
The Qatar Investment Authority's new partnership with JPMorgan's asset management arm begins with a $15 billion public equities mandate, announced in the same week Qatar's Emir told the UN that the Gulf is in one of its most dangerous phases.
Reality
Both routes that carried Gulf barrels around the closed Strait of Hormuz have now been hit, one by a drone and the other by a Houthi takeover of the Red Sea chokepoint. Oil is at $110 a barrel.
Reality
Brent averaged about $69 a barrel last year and trades near $100 now, roughly 45% higher, six months into the war on Iran. Bank of America's base case for the second half is $83, with a $150 tail if energy infrastructure is hit.
Reality
The trade ministry summoned SK Energy, GS Caltex, S-Oil and HD Hyundai Oilbank on the 14th, with spot Dubai crude up 53% in five weeks and the freight differential rate, once 100% and now 25%, back under review.
Reality
The East-West pipeline had been carrying more than double the Red Sea export volume it moved before the Iran war, and on Friday Saudi Arabia stopped it. Riyadh says it will not retaliate, and Trump says the Houthis called.
Reality
Friday's 2.9% fall prices Monday's first Iran-GCC ministerial since the war began, at a moment when regional exports sit near two-thirds of prewar levels and the Houthis are hitting Saudi Arabia's Red Sea bypass.
Reality
Perim Island splits Bab al-Mandab into two channels. The Houthis now hold it. Crude has crossed $100 on the escalation, while no diverted-tonnage or war-risk premium figure has been published to show cargo has stopped.
Reality
Foreign Affairs dates the US and Israeli war on Iran to February 28. What has followed reads less like a single shock than a duty cycle at airports, refineries, desalination plants and ports.
Reality
Flows through the strait have swung between 3.7 million and 6.4 million barrels a day since mid-July, against about 9 million before. The hedge is against variance, not closure.
Reality