France's bond spread over Bunds touched about 150 basis points on Friday, the most since 2011, and the euro fell to $1.1118 on Monday, a 17-month low. Holders of unhedged euro assets now carry French fiscal risk through the currency as well as through the bonds.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Canada's search for partners outside Washington now has a work order behind it, because the two governments told their space agencies and defence ministries to share infrastructure. The gas Macron asked for still waits on contracts.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Finland became the tenth member of France's forward deterrence initiative on September 14. Membership costs nothing and puts no warheads on member soil in peacetime, so the clearest price on the news sits in a prediction market.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives62
- Confidence60
Bonds secured on French mortgage pools have priced inside OATs all year, by 6 to 13 basis points. France's ten-year still pays 90 over Germany, so the collateral takes back a seventh of that at best.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
The government halved its growth forecast for the year to 0.5% and INSEE went to 0.4%, while the 10-year at 4.448% is the highest since 2008 and Roland Lescure said the 5% deficit target is gone.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives62
- Confidence46
The 16 jets arrive in 2028-2029. The parts that touch this war are an Aster-30 shipment moved forward by weeks and a licence to build interceptors inside Ukraine.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption16
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives72
- Confidence30
The Constitutional Council accepted the goal and rejected the method. Teams scoping age assurance are building to a mandate with no defined technical standard and no settled shape.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence60
Budapest's escalation from dumped rock to scuttled barges to a submerged dam shows what a 2,000 MW nuclear plant actually depends on: water level.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives62
- Confidence41