Jonathan Cedeno's Guayaquil survey found water off Ecuador up to 6°C warmer at 40 meters over ten weeks, as fishers along the Pacific coast land less. Surface water warmed 2.5 to 3°C, and so far the damage is recorded in skippers' own accounts from four countries, with El Niño's peak still ahead.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Copernicus logged 21.10 C on Aug. 22, one hundredth of a degree above March 2024. The timing, not the margin, is what should move planning assumptions.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 50%
- Investor
- Investor 32%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence62
IIASA traces this year's Danube low water from an April-July rainfall deficit through soils that began drying in March, four months before the river made it unmistakable.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives58
- Confidence52
The Met Office will commit to the sign of the disruption, not its address. The rice loss is already booked to a marketing year that begins after the event ends.
Reality
- Evidence61
- Adoption47
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives34
- Confidence56
The Met Office expects the tropical Pacific above 3C in November, and one aggregated forecast says 3.9C. The global temperature consequence lands in 2027, which is still a planning cycle away.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives42
- Confidence61
Buckled rail, record-low rivers and disrupted power and water are no longer tail risk. NASA's account of May to August 2026 reads like a description of normal service.
Reality
- Evidence76
- Adoption27
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives46
- Confidence61