project
European atmospheric monitoring service that produces the wildfire emissions estimates cited as comparable to previous major El Nino years for the time of year.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Antarctica's ozone hole reached 27.4 million square kilometres in September, a size topped only in 2000 and 2015. Its forecasters blame a cold, strong polar vortex, so the size says little about the Montreal Protocol until the weather's share is measured.
Reality
Copernicus, the EU's atmosphere monitor, says 34% of the world's population breathed "extremely poor" ozone air from January 1 to September 15. Its report partly blames heat and wildfires and finds ozone flat even where emission rules have cut other pollutants.
Reality
The World Meteorological Organization's new bulletin puts the Antarctic hole below its long-term average for a second year running, and the researchers reading the same data disagree about whether the recovery is on schedule.
Reality
CAMS is comparing this season to 2015 and 2019, both exceptional El Nino years. For anyone planning around regional haze, the more durable input is the drained peatland that turns a dry spell into weeks of smoke downwind.
Reality
Copernicus says the emissions match previous major El Nino years for the date. The 1997 analogue reached 2.5 gigatonnes of CO2, roughly four months of global fossil fuel burning at then-current rates.
Reality