Canada's search for partners outside Washington now has a work order behind it, because the two governments told their space agencies and defence ministries to share infrastructure. The gas Macron asked for still waits on contracts.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Von der Leyen's Strasbourg speech announced a heatwave plan, a European Security Council and associate membership for Canada. Her AI and children's social media items came as subject headings.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives66
- Confidence56
Washington put 50 per cent tariffs on US$20 billion of Canadian goods on August 22 and Ottawa answered at the same scale. At unchanged volumes that is about $10 billion of duty facing each side, on two very different export bases.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives55
- Confidence30
Fortune attributes the US goods deficit with Canada to oil bought cheap for Midwest refineries. Washington's answer so far is a 50% tariff on $20 billion of Canadian products and an import ban on whey, alcohol and mopeds.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence58
Steel, aluminum and copper duties running from 15% to 50% mean the customs line on an invoice now matters more than the metal described on it. The critical-minerals exemption, meanwhile, sits upstream of where manufacturers actually buy.
Reality
- Evidence20
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives70
- Confidence36
The $20 billion hike and Canada's Tuesday retaliation arrive before the midterms; the 50 percent auto and steel tariff Trump promised is dated 2027, with no negotiated off-ramp in sight.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives78
- Confidence55
The tariff is live across more than 500 categories and Ottawa's answer is dated September 8. Buyers get 17 days, plus a court precedent that cuts against long contracts.
Reality
- Evidence20
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives55
- Confidence24
Talks collapsed, 50% duties landed on $20 billion of Canadian goods, and retaliation is dated Sept. 8. Nothing in the record gives a planner a date to wait for.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives76
- Confidence55
Greer's account leaves neither capital a price at which to re-enter. No talks are scheduled, and duties on more than $20bn of goods carry a roughly $10bn bill.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives74
- Confidence33
US importers remit the duty on $20 billion of Canadian goods. Canada says it will match dollar for dollar, and the future of the three-country trade pact is now the open question.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives68
- Confidence55
Section 338 of the Tariff Act has never been aimed at Canada before. The carve-outs, not the headline rate, show what Washington thinks it can afford to tax.
Reality
- Evidence26
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives58
- Confidence28
Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 has sat essentially unused for most of a century. Its revival will outlast whatever deal lands before the August 19 deadline.
Reality
- Evidence18
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives62
- Confidence24