Quark Baby founder Garett Senez says moving production from China to Korea cost just under $1 million, about half of what tariffs cost the company. The molds shipped, but the skill of running them at scale has to be learned again on the Korean lines.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives50
- Confidence35
Trump has twice declined to retaliate against Beijing, and the tariff campaign he did run ended in an armistice that China's rare earth monopoly helped force. Anyone pricing a snapback argues against that record.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives60
- Confidence52
The same estimate carries a 3.1% rise in core goods prices and roughly 345,000 full-time jobs. It arrives in the seventh month of a war with Iran that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the figures describe a long-run level.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence40
Canada's export mix has moved ten points away from the United States in two years, but almost all of the measured movement is oil, gold and LNG, and the sectors that most need a second market are still only candidates.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence42
August's surprise 162,000 jobs drew a grievance session rather than a victory lap, and the threat that followed, stopping trade with foreign countries over rates, has to price against $40 trillion of debt rolling at a 4.79% ten-year.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Tariffs, secondary-sanction threats and White House warmth toward Pakistan and China have not moved New Delhi. What holds the line is a political choice with an expiry clause.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives32
- Confidence46
Internal documents put Canadian package growth above 40 percent by 2029 and record a March decision to source from China rather than the US, in the document's own words, to avoid tariffs.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives58
- Confidence46
Talks collapsed, 50% duties landed on $20 billion of Canadian goods, and retaliation is dated Sept. 8. Nothing in the record gives a planner a date to wait for.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives76
- Confidence55
Talks collapsed on August 21 and the duties landed within hours, with Ottawa promising to match them dollar for dollar. Anyone carrying cross-border cost of goods is repricing without a settlement to hedge against.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives52
- Confidence24
A suit over tariff-era price rises tests whether money returned to importers travels down to the people who paid it. Every hardware purchase from that window sits downstream of the answer.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives68
- Confidence32
A store-level study of 8,674 retailers and 11.4 million bottle sales in 2018 finds export tariffs pushed domestic whiskey prices down in most states and up in the two that make most of it.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives52
- Confidence48
Dominic Barton says the diplomats who used to telegraph trade shocks have been replaced by social media posts, and that companies should be re-planning debt, data and incorporation around it.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives74
- Confidence44
Small importers are carrying the tariff cases while the largest buyers route objections through trade associations. The plaintiffs setting your cost baseline answer to nobody's risk model.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption78
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives62
- Confidence52