Growth lines and isotopes in one giant clam shell from Jiigurru put northern Great Barrier Reef summers around 1800 at 0.9 to 1.2C cooler than in 1995-2015. Winters were nearly unchanged, so this site's warming has come mostly in the hot season, on the evidence of one animal.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives35
- Confidence50
Woods Hole researchers pushed the record of Indian-Pacific coupling back to the early 1600s using corals, tree rings and stalagmites. Only one earlier interval, 1810 to 1850, shows the relationship breaking down.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence52
Planktonic foraminifera coil left or right, and sometimes every ocean switches at once. The explanation offered in 1959 was temperature; genetics undercut it, and the newest proposal is an evolutionary sweep.
Reality
- Evidence63
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives24
- Confidence58
A Southampton-led team models 100 million years of East Antarctic uplift and puts the ice sheet's origin in the deep Earth, not the atmosphere.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
A Montana State-led study in PNAS reads pollen, charcoal, arsenic and diatoms from closed lakes in the Lower Geyser Basin. Its framing: dry centuries brought less hydrothermal activity and more fire.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+13
- Incentives63
- Confidence50
Two decades of Karoo Supergroup work is now one open-access review, and it reports that the basin's climate story is less tidy and its dating better constrained than in 2000.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives60
- Confidence52