Centcom's chief flew to a carrier with reported food, water and mental-health problems. The endurance limit, not the diplomacy, is what energy and shipping risk should be priced against.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 47%
- Investor
- Investor 48%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Washington cut its flagship Korea exercise by 55% and killed an amphibious drill, citing Iran force constraints. Trump also cited Seoul's Iran policy. Both cannot be the binding reason.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 58%
- Investor
- Investor 35%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence58
Six Republicans have now broken with the president in public over immigration, the Iran war and a plan to cut beef tariffs. Two of the six put the break on the record with a vote. Vox reports his approval is reaching new lows.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Bond traders pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.15% on Thursday, its highest since 2007, as oil returned to $105 a barrel. Fuel costs from the Iran war are now reaching borrowers through bets on another Fed rate hike.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives40
- Confidence55