US quits settle at 3.07 million in August after the 2021-22 job-hopping wave

Add August's quits, layoffs and retirements together and separations come to about 5.07 million ^[1]. Set against the month's hires, departures equal about 98% of them ^[2]. Wolf Richter, who wrote up the release for Wolf Street, wrote that nearly all of August's hires filled slots left behind by earlier separations ^[12], and the sum bears him out. Once every departure is matched, roughly 120,000 hires are left over ^[3]. Richter noted that job creation itself was covered by the September 4 payrolls report ^[12].

Richter wrote: "Fewer quits mean fewer job openings left behind that need to be filled and fewer hires needed to fill them." ^[4] In August the openings count moved for other reasons. Quits fell by 23,000 and openings by 256,000 ^[1][8]. If each missing resignation had removed exactly one vacancy, fewer quits would account for about 9% of the decline ^[4]. Over twelve months openings rose by 160,000 ^[9], from roughly 6.92 million to 7.08 million ^[5], in a stretch Richter describes as normal turnover ^[13]. Employers now carry about 2.3 openings for every August quit ^[6]. The count comes from HR departments at 21,000 business locations, not online job ads, and a position counts only if it could start within 30 days with outside recruiting under way ^[10].

Richter wrote that the 2021-22 quitting wave "was very costly for employers at the time, triggered large increases in wages for workers at the time, but likely resulted in a better overall fit between workers and employers." ^[14] Run in reverse, fewer departures should mean smaller raises to keep or replace staff. The release does not include pay data to test that. Employers are holding on to staff as well: layoffs and discharges averaged 1.71 million over three months, at the very low end of the prepandemic range ^[16].

Richter's conclusion: "This calmed-down turnover is not a sign of a weak labor market but of a settled labor force that is more productive for employers, after the massive and costly churn of 2021 and 2022." ^[15] The same counts also fit a market where workers stay because outside offers have thinned. Quits alone cannot tell a settled worker from a cautious one. A third reading is that openings keep rising on demand for new positions, so recruiting pressure grows while quits hold still ^[5].

I think the backfill argument holds for August. Quits are 60% of all separations ^[3], and separations matched nearly all hiring ^[2]. The wage argument fails if openings keep climbing above year-ago levels while quits stay near 3.07 million, because employers would then be bidding for new seats against a workforce that is not moving ^[5][1].