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Independent US financial and economic commentary site published by Wolf Richter, covering macro data, housing, credit and markets.
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Ten-year Treasury yields closed the week at 5.28% after buyers who drove them down to 5.15% on Friday's jobs headlines gave the move back by afternoon. One afternoon's reversal is thin evidence that yields above 5% will hold, though the October 2023 spike never got that reaction.
Reality
Construction added 109,000 jobs in a year, growing 2.4 times as fast as professional and business services in BLS payrolls released October 2. Wolf Richter credits data centers, factories and power plants, so hiring is following capital spending into physical projects.
Reality
US data-center construction spending rose 73% in a year to an $85 billion annual rate, Census Bureau figures for August show. Factory construction still runs at nearly twice that rate, and builders are paying about a tenth more for materials and services than a year ago.
Reality
FHFA data compiled by Wolf Street put 49.1% of US mortgages below 4% in the second quarter, while market rates run above 7%. With life-event selling nearly halted, the supply of existing homes stays thin until mortgage rates fall.
Reality
US consumer spending rose 6.1% in the year to August before inflation and 2.6% after it, Bureau of Economic Analysis data show. Prices rose faster in August alone than over the year, so the report argues for a slower path of rate cuts.
Reality
US workers quit 3.07 million jobs in August, 23,000 fewer than in July, Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data show. Fewer resignations mean fewer seats to refill, but the case for easing pay pressure still rests on the 2021-22 experience.
Reality
Hedge funds in the Treasury basis trade borrowed $3.0 trillion in repo as of July 2025, New York Fed data show, roughly what money market funds lend. Dealers stand between the two, so a pullback in money-fund cash would reach the basis traders through dealer balance sheets.
Reality
US manufacturers booked $88 billion of core capital goods orders in August, up 14.1% from a year earlier, according to Census Bureau data. Wolf Richter credits the AI build-out, but orders can sit in backlog for months, longer if reported turbine-blade shortages persist.
Reality
Record diesel crack spreads on top of expensive crude have taken the US pump price to an all-time high. Senator Chuck Grassley wants President Trump to ban the exports, which are also at a record.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
The 10-year broke a 5% level it had bounced against for two weeks, and the curve from two to thirty years now sits between 4.91% and 5.39%. A Treasury buyback offer the same morning did not slow it.
Reality
Payrolls in both sectors are back at their 2019 levels. The two AI companies headquartered in San Francisco are asking markets for roughly $11 million for every job left in the sectors where their hiring lands.
Reality
The 3-year Treasury closed Friday at 4.86%, up 144 basis points since the end of February, while the 10-year has found just enough buying to stall at 5.01%. Fifteen basis points now separate the two.
Reality
Wolf Richter counts 34 bigger markets where mid-tier condo prices sit 15% to 34% below peaks mostly set in mid-2022, and six that are back under their 2006 highs. In San Francisco, houses are re-exploding while condos stay 7% under peak.
Reality
Retail sales rose 1.2% in August to $773 billion, and 1.1% without gas stations. Part of that monthly jump refills a July hole left by Amazon Prime Day moving to June, so the 4.9% ex-gasoline annual rate carries the case.
Reality
It took 5.42% to place $13 billion of 20-year bonds, 21.6 basis points more than last month, and the indirect bidders who include foreign central banks took the smallest share in the maturity's six-year history.
Reality
The Fed's Q2 accounts show household money-market holdings up 12.8% over the year to $5.1 trillion at yields below 3.75% after fees, with August CPI at 3.4% and the small-CD balances savers control flat for seven months.
Reality
Processed intermediate goods rose 11.5 percent over 12 months while the prices firms finally charge rose 5.4 percent. Diesel accounts for most of August's monthly move, and the measure that excludes distributor margins accounts for the rest.
Reality
Wolf Richter puts Trump's $5,000-per-adult promise at $1.35 trillion of new borrowing. Within two sessions of the speech in Dallas, the long end of the Treasury market repriced.
Reality
Wolf Richter annualizes August's 0.40% monthly rise at 4.9% and core services at 4.0%, while the year-over-year rates for the headline index and for core services both sat where July left them, at 3.4% and 3.0%.
Reality
The Ministry of Finance's monthly release shows where the yen defence gets its money, and because the paper being sold was bought when the yen was far stronger, the selling throws off yen gains the cabinet is already spending.
Reality
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