person
Author of the analysis arguing the July seasonally adjusted retail decline is a Prime Day and seasonal-adjustment artifact.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Mid-tier condo prices are down 15% to 33% from peak in 33 bigger US markets, and in six the index is back under 2006. That is a collateral question, not a housing headline.
Reality
Pending home sales fell 2.3% in July to the second-lowest reading on record, and the West hit an outright record low. A fourth year at the bottom is not a cycle you wait out.
Reality
Mid-tier single-family prices are down 11% to 26% from peak in 15 large markets, while AI money pulled San Francisco off the list. Collateral marks have to be local now.
Reality
Foreign official holdings are down to $3.78 trillion, the lowest in over two years, while private foreign holdings sit at a record $5.52 trillion. Japan supplied over half the selling.
Reality
Wolf Street's July update shows Austin, Las Vegas and Nashville leading year-over-year declines while AI money bids up San Francisco's middle third. Regional exposure is now the whole trade.
Reality
The 30-year auction cleared at the highest yield since 2001 and the 10-year at the highest since 2007. Funding cost, not demand, is the constraint, and it is already moving FX policy.
Reality
Unadjusted spending rose 0.9% in July and 5.2% year over year, with restaurants up 6.0%. The seasonally adjusted decline mostly reflects Prime Day moving from July to June.
Reality