Invest1 publisher2 min readPublished
The S&P set 23 fewer record highs in year one of Trump's second term than in 2017
The index gained 13 to 16 percent from January 2025 to January 2026. That is between 54 and 66 percent of the 24.1 percent it posted in the same window of 2017, and it came off a base two consecutive 20 percent years had already lifted.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- The S&P 500 gained roughly 13 to 16 percent between Trump's second inauguration on January 20, 2025 and January 20, 2026, according to cryptobriefing.com.
- In the same window of his first term, in 2017, the index rose 24.1 percent, and the second-term figure is the weakest opening year for a new presidential term since 2005.
- Equities outside the US outpaced the S&P 500 over the same twelve months, on MSCI data, reversing the American exceptionalism trade of much of the prior decade.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- constraint Comparing terms in percentages flatters the earlier one. The 2025 index needed a much larger absolute move to match 24.1 percent, so part of the shortfall comes from the starting level and not from a weaker policy bid.
- contradiction The elevated-base explanation and the MSCI result pull against each other, since the S&P's own starting level cannot account for foreign indices doing better over the same twelve months.
- exposure Retail investors who take the Dow 100,000 projection at face value are implicitly underwriting about 18.9 percent a year for four years, and the report flags exactly that speculative behaviour as the risk the target creates.
Two consecutive years of 20 percent-plus gains ran into the second inauguration [7]. Run 1.20 times 1.20 and you get 1.44, so the index that opened the term had been lifted at least 44 percent in two years [9]. A record close costs more points from there than it did in January 2017. On that basis the 24.1 percent of the first term [2] was struck in easier conditions, and part of the 8.1-to-11.1-point shortfall [15] is starting level.
The comparison that the base argument cannot absorb comes from MSCI: equities outside the US outpaced the S&P over the same twelve months [8]. The return on a foreign index comes from somewhere other than a crowded starting level in New York. The report does not say whether that comparison is struck in dollars or in local currency. The difference matters: a softer dollar lifts ex-US returns for a dollar-based holder without anything changing in how US equities price policy [19].
Both the best and the worst single-day moves of the year traced back to administration policy, according to Fundstrat data cited in the report. The April 2025 tariff adjustments generated substantial one-day swings in both directions [6]. Policy moved the market more than anything else did, in both directions. A summer 2025 stimulus bill supported sentiment for a while and did not close the gap with the first-term trajectory [16].
Then there is the target. Trump has said he expects the Dow at 100,000 by the end of the term [10], which the report puts at roughly double early-2025 levels [11]. Doubling across a four-year term is about 18.9 percent a year compounded [12], above the top of the range the S&P managed in year one [1].
In my view the ex-US result is the more informative half of this record. A drag that is purely the S&P's own starting level would not hand the return to foreign markets. The honest counter is the currency one, and a single MSCI line does not settle it. The test is which series moves first. If the base explains the gap, the one-day policy swings should narrow while the index keeps clearing records. If a policy discount explains it, US equities keep trailing the ex-US measure while tariff decisions keep setting the extreme days. As of mid-2026 the market was still gaining, and still volatile [18].
What to watch
- Whether an updated MSCI read shows the ex-US lead over the S&P widening or reversing in year two, and on what currency basis it is struck.
- The second-year record-high count measured against 2017's 62, which distinguishes the base explanation from policy risk.
- Where the Dow actually sits against the roughly 18.9 percent a year that 100,000 by the end of the term requires.