The average REIT lost 4.48% in August, its second straight monthly decline, and 2026 FFO multiples contracted 0.4 turns at both ends of the market. Large caps still cost 47.1% more per dollar of FFO than small caps.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
The index gained 13 to 16 percent from January 2025 to January 2026. That is between 54 and 66 percent of the 24.1 percent it posted in the same window of 2017, and it came off a base two consecutive 20 percent years had already lifted.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence38
Kevin Warsh's board voted unanimously for a 0.25-point increase with consumer prices up 3.4 percent in August. Navy Federal's chief economist says the Fed signaled two or three more hikes to come.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence40
Brent rose 6% to $107 with routes through Hormuz and the Red Sea disrupted, and the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest in more than 19 years. Traders now put the odds of a hike on Wednesday at 70%.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives35
- Confidence58
Wholesale is back to $6.6 billion and running has five double-digit quarters. Strip wholesale out and the rest of Nike shed roughly $365 million in the fourth quarter.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives58
- Confidence54
The Treasury secretary's on-air reassurance failed to pull yields lower and helped knock 700 points off the Dow. The next tools on his list run toward the Fed's territory.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives68
- Confidence40
A 30-year yield above 5.33% and Iran-driven oil prices are overwhelming good numbers from good companies. Walmart down 9% and Micron down 20% from its highs tell the same story.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives78
- Confidence45
The S&P 500 and Dow set records on AI earnings, but one stock moved roughly sixteen times as far as the index that day. That ratio is the story.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives62
- Confidence33