Dubai crude's 28.1% jump lifts South Korea's September import prices 1.7%
South Korea's import prices rose 1.7% in September, the first rise in four months, the Bank of Korea said, as Dubai crude jumped 28.1% to $113.71 a barrel. In won terms the oil rise was about 23.8%, and export prices fell 0.8%, partly on the same stronger currency.
The Investor · Invest desk
Bar comparison of South Korea's import price changes from August to September by category: raw materials up 9.6%, intermediate goods down 1.7%, capital goods down 2.4% and consumer goods down 2.3%.
Import price change, September vs August In % from August
| Item | Value | Claim |
|---|---|---|
| Raw materials | 9.6% from August | 5 |
| Intermediate goods | −1.7% from August | 6 |
| Capital goods | −2.4% from August | 7 |
| Consumer goods | −2.3% from August | 7 |
What happened
- Raw materials jumped 9.6% from August, led by mineral products such as crude oil, while intermediate, capital and consumer goods import prices all fell.
- On individual items, crude oil import prices rose 21.6%, jet fuel 14.1% and bunker C oil 5.6%.
- The export price index stood at 182.29, a second straight monthly decline after a 3.5% drop.
- Among exports, excavators fell 3.8%, and synthetic fiber fabrics, cosmetics and secondary batteries each fell 3.4%.
Why it matters
- What it costs cost The export-to-import price ratio fell about 2.5% in a month, so each unit Korea sold abroad bought that much less in imports.
- Who's exposed exposure Producers that use imported raw materials meet the oil cost first, and the Bank of Korea says import prices feed production costs and consumer prices along the supply chain.
- What it limits constraint The cushion depends on the won holding: a weaker won would pass more of the dollar rise on to importers, and the non-energy categories would lose the help they appear to be getting.
The 28.1% jump in Dubai crude is a dollar price, and Korean importers pay in won. Dubai crude moved from $88.75 to $113.71 [4] while the won averaged 1,359 per dollar against 1,406.3 in August [3], so a barrel cost about 23.8% more in won terms [13]. The currency took roughly 4.3 percentage points off the dollar move [14]. It also cut the other way: Yonhap reported, citing Bank of Korea data, that export prices fell partly because of the stronger won [10].
That cushion did not stop the index rising. The breakdown beneath the total admits more than one reading: the won explains the falls elsewhere in the basket, softer metal prices explain them, or both do. The other three import categories fell between 1.7% and 2.4% [c6, c7], against a 3.4% move in the won [3]. Inside intermediate goods, the BOK said declines in primary metal products outweighed gains in petroleum and coal products [6]. We think the won is lowering the price of most of the non-energy basket and that raw materials, led by crude [5], are overwhelming it in the total. On that view the claim that energy outweighs currency holds for the aggregate and is untested below it.
The counter-thesis is that metals and goods prices, not the exchange rate, explain the falls, and the published figures do not separate the two. If the won weakens next month and capital goods import prices keep falling, we are wrong.
One month does not repair much. The index fell 4.2% in June, 1.0% in July and 2.2% in August [2]. That is a compounded slide of about 7.2% [16]. After September's rise to 159.37 on the 2020 base [1], the index still sits about 5.7% below its end-May level [17]. The September figures are preliminary [1].
What to watch
- Whether intermediate goods import prices turn up in the October report as petroleum and coal product gains outweigh primary metal declines.
- Dubai crude's October average against September's level, since one month of oil strength has so far recovered only part of a three-month slide.
- Whether export prices fall a third straight month from the 182.29 index level.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence80
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
South Korea's import price index (preliminary, 2020 base year = 100) stood at 159.37 in September, up 1.7% from August and the first rise in four months, the Bank of Korea said in its September export and import price report.
- [2]
The import price index had fallen every month after rising 0.2% in May: it declined 4.2% in June, 1.0% in July and 2.2% in August.
- [3]
The won averaged 1,359 per dollar in September, down 3.4% from 1,406.3 in August.
- [4]
Dubai crude climbed 28.1% to $113.71 a barrel from $88.75 between August and September, amid the prolonged war in the Middle East.
- [5]
Raw materials import prices jumped 9.6% from the previous month, led by mineral products such as crude oil; intermediate goods, capital goods and consumer goods all fell.
- [6]
Intermediate goods import prices fell 1.7% as declines in primary metal products offset gains in petroleum and coal products.
- [7]
Capital goods import prices dropped 2.4% and consumer goods 2.3% from August.
- [8]
Among individual import items, crude oil rose 21.6%, jet fuel gained 14.1% and bunker C oil advanced 5.6%.
- [9]
The export price index came in at 182.29 in September, down 0.8% from August, a second straight monthly decline after a 3.5% drop.
- [10]
The export price index fell 0.8% on-month in September, partly due to a stronger Korean won, the BOK data showed.
- [11]
Among export items, excavators fell 3.8%, while synthetic fiber fabrics, cosmetics and secondary batteries each fell 3.4%.
- [12]
Import prices are a key driver of inflation, as they affect production costs and consumer prices throughout the supply chain, according to the central bank.
- [13]
Dubai crude rose about 23.8% in won terms between August and September.
- [14]
The stronger won took roughly 4.3 percentage points off the 28.1% dollar rise in Dubai crude.
- [15]
The ratio of the export price index to the import price index fell about 2.5% between August and September.
- [16]
Compounded, the import price index fell about 7.2% across June, July and August.
- [17]
After September's 1.7% rise, the import price index is still about 5.7% below its end-May level.
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Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- en.sedaily.comKorea Import Prices Rise for First Time in Four Months on Oil Surge
1 article · October 15, 2026
- en.yna.co.krImport prices rebound in Sept. on higher oil prices
1 article · October 15, 2026
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Topics
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