One in five Australian trips already altered by weather, and a third of travellers rule out hot places

A national online survey of 2,292 Australians found that one in five had changed their most recent holiday because of weather, and that one-third had decided against destinations they considered too hot, naming places such as Dubai and northern Australia ^[1][4]. The second figure is the commercially awkward one, because a trip that is never booked leaves no trace in a cancellation log ^[4].

The disruption side of the ledger is tidy. Of the fifth who changed plans, 8 percent of the sample were affected by fires, floods or storms and 6 percent by heavy rain ^[2], while a further 6 percent altered plans because of forecast heat ^[3]. Those three drivers sum to 20 percent, which accounts for the entire one-fifth ^[2]. Twenty percent of 2,292 is roughly 458 respondents ^[1].

Within that group, 36 percent shortened, extended or moved the dates of a trip ^[6], about 31 percent changed what they did while away, such as shopping indoors on a humid day ^[7], about one-fifth switched destination entirely ^[8], and 10 percent stayed home ^[10]. Scaled against the whole sample, that is about 7 percent who moved dates ^[5], roughly 4 percent who moved destination ^[3], and about 2 percent who did not travel at all ^[4]. Natural disasters were the main reason for switching destination, followed by heat, then rain ^[9]. Destination switching was most common among nature-based tourists and least common among city tourists ^[9]. Of those who stayed home, most had planned to visit family and friends ^[10].

Set against that, the pre-booking effect is larger. Roughly a third of 2,292 is about 764 people who had ruled out a hot destination ^[6], which exceeds the entire group that changed a trip already underway or planned ^[7]. For a destination marketing body, that is a forecasting input, not a reputational one.

The other operational finding is stickiness: 80 percent kept their original plans regardless of the weather ^[11]. The authors, writing at phys.org, treat this as a safety problem rather than a resilience win, noting that nature-based tourists were reluctant to change plans even in adverse conditions, and citing heat-related deaths among hikers ^[12]. Older Australians were also more likely to travel despite unpredictable weather, which the authors suggest may reflect prepaid arrangements, limited computer skills or limited finances ^[13]. Their recommendations are unglamorous and cheap relative to the exposure: stronger heat warning systems, more shade and water at major sites, clear guidance on avoiding the hottest hours, and mandatory heat safety training for staff at outdoor attractions such as national parks ^[14].

The base is large enough to matter. Australians made about 113 million domestic overnight trips in 2025 and more than 12 million trips abroad ^[15], in what the authors describe as one of the world's most heatwave-prone countries ^[16], where heatwave deaths are expected to double over the next 40 years ^[17]. The authors say theirs is the first empirical evidence that Australians are shifting travel patterns because of heat ^[5], and they note existing evidence has held that rain deters tourists more than heat does ^[18].

What to watch: whether the one-third avoidance figure shows up in booking data for hot-season destinations, and whether operators treat the sticky 80 percent as a duty-of-care cost rather than a loyal customer base ^[11][4].