Science1 publisher3 min readPublished
Most Gothenburg tenants who left over a renovation moved out before work started
Of 450 tenants who left Gothenburg public housing, 141 told Chalmers researchers renovation was a main reason, and most of them moved before work began. Disruption fears and vague schedules led their reasons, so communication looks like a retention lever the study did not test.
The Scientist · Science desk
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What happened
- The study covered 42 renovation projects run by Gothenburg's three municipally owned housing companies, with tenant moves made between 2018 and 2021.
- Noise, disruption and reduced functionality during the works were the reasons cited most often by those who left because of the renovation.
- Unclear information, repeated delays and shifting schedules made everyday planning hard and in some cases contributed to tenants leaving for good.
- An ageing housing stock and national and EU energy performance rules mean Swedish public housing faces a large renovation need.
Compiled by The ScientistSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- decision Retention work has to start when a retrofit is announced, because in this sample most renovation-driven departures came before any construction did.
- decision Landlords that manage retrofit turnover mainly through rent are addressing only part of what these tenants said pushed them out.
- constraint As published, the evidence comes from tenants who left, so it cannot yet tell an operator how many households better communication would keep.
- constraint Operators outside Sweden would be extrapolating from a municipal housing model that has no direct international equivalent.
For a housing operator, the timing is the first result to look at. At least 85 tenants left before construction began [2]. That is about one in five of everyone interviewed [3]. None of them had lived through any of the works [5]. They were acting on what they expected. The paper's title is "Uncertainties and anticipated disturbances as drivers of tenant relocation in Swedish housing renovation" [15].
The study, published in Energy Research & Social Science [1], was led by Paula Femenias, a professor in Chalmers' Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering [14]. "In our study, we have found that tenants often move out even before the renovation begins. It is not just a question of rent increases, but also of uncertainty and concern about how their daily lives will be affected," she said [8].
The denominator needs care. Everyone interviewed had already moved out [3]. The 141 are 31 percent of that group [1], and the other 309 did not name the renovation as a main reason [4]. The sample as described includes no tenants who stayed. So the study cannot say what share of households in the renovated buildings left, or whether the ones who stayed had been told more than the ones who went. The reasons were also given after the move, so they record what tenants believe drove the decision.
Femenias does more than list the factors. She ranks them. "The debate on socially sustainable refurbishment has often focused on rent increases, but what we think is important to highlight from our study is that concerns about disruption and a lack of clear information play at least as significant a role," she said [10]. The published summary does not report how many movers cited rent, or move-out rates by how each project was communicated, so her ranking cannot be checked against it.
On what landlords can change, she was specific. "Information and communication are low-hanging fruit in this context. For example, having direct, personal contact with representatives of the landlord clearly helps tenants feel better informed and more secure about why, how and when the renovation will take place, and what impact it will have," she said [9]. I think the timing result supports her. A tenant who leaves before the first day of work is reacting to information about work that has not started. Finding out whether personal contact keeps that tenant would mean comparing projects that used it with projects that did not.
Renovations in this sector generally lead to higher rents [12], so rent will stay part of the decision. The municipal system studied has no direct, general international equivalent [13]. I'd expect the timing finding to carry over to other countries better than the rent comparison, because it rests on move-out dates, and every landlord has those in its own records.
What to watch
- Whether the full paper reports how many of the 141 renovation-driven movers cited rent increases, which would test Femenias's view that disruption and poor information matter at least as much.
- Any comparison of move-out rates across the 42 projects by communication method, such as personal contact against written notices.
- Whether Gothenburg's municipal housing companies change when and how they inform tenants about retrofits, and track pre-construction move-outs afterwards.