Leadership1 publisher3 min readPublished
Local officials report a 10-point jump in damaging polarization ahead of the midterms
CivicPulse found 41% of local officials report substantial negative effects from polarization, about 10 points above its three previous surveys. Cost of living ranks among the top drivers, and it is too early to tell whether the rise outlasts the midterms.
The Board Room · Leadership desk
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What happened
- Officials in towns of more than 50,000 residents reported more polarization, at 49%, than those in smaller communities, at 39%.
- Officials see the problem as far worse nationally, with 91% saying polarization is substantially hurting the country.
- One official recalled an immigration arrest that set off protests and clashes with federal authorities in the community.
- April Ramirez, a city council member in Twentynine Palms, California, said the hostility grew severe enough that she considered giving up her seat.
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Why it matters
- exposure Councils in towns above 50,000 residents carry the larger share of the strain, so recruiting and keeping elected officials is likeliest to get harder there first.
- decision Councils weighing support or security for officials must choose whether to fund it for one election season or as a recurring cost, before a post-November survey shows which cause dominates.
- precedent Kvaal's account of national rhetoric entering local debate, alongside Patriot Mobile's 2022 school board spending, makes national-style campaigning in local races more likely to recur.
Ten points is a large move against three earlier readings [2]. By subtraction, those surveys put the share of officials reporting substantial harm near 31% [17]. NBC News, which received the results first, did not report when the earlier surveys ran or how many officials answered this one [1].
Prices lead the explanations [5], but the local list has several entries. Taxes and housing ranked high in communities, with immigration behind them but growing more polarizing as the midterms approach [6]. The picture of residents blaming local officials for things they cannot control comes from one interviewee, who described people venting over national issues like rising gas prices [7]. In my view, taxes and housing sit much closer to a council's own agenda than gas prices do.
A skeptic would say this is midterm season and it will pass. The foundation that commissioned the survey partly agrees. James Kvaal, an executive at the Andrew Carnegie Foundation [8], said, "Some of the rhetoric that's used in the national debate is now being used locally as well, and I think that is in part due to the heat of the midterms that is bringing greater attention to debates that are dividing our country" [9]. If the cause is electoral, a post-election survey should drift back toward 31% [17]. Price pressure does not follow the election calendar. We do not know yet which force is larger.
Local government still starts from a stronger position than the national level. The national figure sits about 50 points above the share reporting substantial local harm [18], though the two questions are worded differently. Nathan Lee, CivicPulse's managing director, said most local governments seem "to be functioning quite a bit more harmoniously and less divisively" than what officials see nationally, but that "that good news is starting to be compromised" [10].
The cost lands on individual officeholders. April Ramirez, a Republican, said she was yelled at over her support for a controversial solar project. She also said she was stalked while pursuing a community grant for emergency and homeless services through a church-affiliated nonprofit [13]. "That's when it got really bad, like to the point of threats, to the point of like, 'Let's just run her out of this town,'" Ramirez said [12].
National campaigns have already reached into local seats. Patriot Mobile, a conservative cellphone company, created a political action committee that spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Texas school board races in 2022. The Keller Independent School District in Tarrant County was among its targets [14]. Company president Glenn Story told Steve Bannon at that year's Conservative Political Action Conference that his group "took over" four of the state's school boards [15].
What to watch
- A CivicPulse survey after the November midterms: a return toward the roughly 31% baseline would favour the electoral explanation, a hold near 41% the price one.
- Whether CivicPulse publishes its sample size and the dates of its three earlier surveys.
- Departures of local officials who cite hostility, especially in towns above 50,000 residents.