Iran's oil minister resigns after a report that an oil-sales trust owes the state nearly $2bn

The resignation comes amid two separate problems: the blockade that has cut oil sales, and allegations about the channel that brings the remaining revenue home. The Guardian blames Iran's oil export shortfall mainly on the US naval blockade. It also says reports of lax management or possible corruption will do little to bolster confidence in the government ^[15]. The allegations, published by the Farhikhtegan newspaper, concern a trust that is part of Iran's "trustee" system ^[11]. These are informal networks Iran uses to get around US sanctions and bring oil revenue home ^[10]. With less oil sold, any money held back in the channel that repatriates the rest matters more. According to the Guardian, the fall in oil receipts has already left a massive shortfall in foreign exchange earnings ^[25].

Paknejad gave personal reasons for leaving ^[2]. The dispute behind the exit is older than the newspaper report. The complaint about the trust reportedly went from a security official to the president, and before the US attack on Iran in February it reached the supreme leader. The president raised it with the minister and got no satisfactory response ^[16]. The Guardian also reports that some of the leaks may reflect a power struggle inside the oil industry ^[13]. The departure looks like the end of a long internal dispute that the blockade made more expensive. Reza Sepahvand, a spokesperson for parliament's energy commission, has announced an inquiry ^[14].

The strain on the state shows more clearly in its workforce and in prices than in its cabinet. Emergency government meetings over the weekend produced little tangible progress ^[5]. The dollar traded at a record 269,000 tomans this week, up 12% since 9 September ^[19]. A 12% rise in the dollar means the toman has lost about 10.7% of its dollar value over that period ^[26]. The minimum monthly wage of 166m rials is worth about $66, and food inflation is 130% ^[20][21]. Mohammad Sharifi Moghaddam, secretary general of the Nurses' House organisation, said, "The current healthcare system has shown no regard for the issues and demands of the nursing community." ^[24]

So far the responses are local and temporary. Tehran's mayor, Alireza Zakani, is freezing the price of 12 basic items for six months, though there is scepticism about how the controls will be enforced ^[22]. Ministers said a second rise in public sector wages was likely ^[23]. The central bank says its role is to manage fluctuations, not to defend a specific rate ^[7]. The economy contracted 10% in the first three months of the year ^[8]. Iranian diplomats are planning no new concessions after Donald Trump rejected a proposal to speed up nuclear negotiations a week ago ^[9].

On energy, the figures point two ways. Iranian ministers are trying to rebut Trump's claim that oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz at near pre-blockade rates ^[27]. On volume alone, a Reuters figure for the whole region's crude exports is close to his account ^[28]. The routes are less settled. There have been four attacks in 48 hours on ships using the strait's southern route near the Oman shoreline ^[17]. Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline was reportedly forced to close again after another attack ^[18]. In my view, the risk this quarter for anyone buying or shipping Gulf crude is on those routes. Next quarter's counterparty question depends on the energy commission's inquiry, and it is not yet clear whether it will name the trustees or recover any money ^[14].