Mohsen Paknejad has left Iran's oil ministry days after a newspaper alleged that a trust set up on his watch owed the state oil company nearly $2bn. He goes with inflation at 85% and a US naval blockade keeping Iran from selling the oil that funds most of its government.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
Some medicine prices in Iran have more than tripled as a US naval blockade and tougher sanctions squeeze the imported inputs its drugmakers rely on. US sanctions do not target medicine directly, but an Essex academic says banks and shippers often refuse the legal trade anyway.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Iran pushed its trade onto land routes after the blockade closed its southern ports. Those corridors are clearing cargo at four times the sea freight cost and weeks of delay, and total non-oil trade is falling.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives75
- Confidence52
Tehran said on Sept. 7 that gasoline bought past a subsidized quota would cost about four cents a liter, and within days taxi drivers in Kerman were protesting the quota cuts while Snapp drivers struck across several provinces.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence35
The 60-day cease-fire window closed on the 16th. Washington is weighing secondary sanctions on Chinese buyers of Iranian crude while US pump prices run 29% above last year, three months from the midterms.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption46
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives62
- Confidence40